Market Wrap: 29/05/2017
(17:00)
NSE-NF (June): 9610 (+34;
+0.36%) (TTM PE: 24.338; Near 2 SD of 25; TTM EPS: 394; NS-9605)
NSE-BNF (June): 23130
(-126; -0.54%) (TTM PE: 31.85; Above 3 SD of 30; TTM EPS: 728; BNS-23183)
For 30/05/2017:
Key support for NF: 9600/9580-9530
Key resistance for NF:
9680-9770
Key support for BNF:
23050-22800
Key resistance for
BNF: 23275-23400
Time & Price action suggests that,
Nifty Fut (May) has to sustain over 9680 area for further rally towards 9725-9770
& 9825-9865 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On flip side, sustaining below 9660-9640
area, NF may fall towards 9600/9580-9530 & 9475-9425 area in the short term
(under bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 23275
area for further rally towards 23400/23500-23650 & 23875-24000 area in the
near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 23225
area, BNF may fall towards 23050-22800 & 22650-22450 area in the near term
(under bear case scenario).
Nifty
Fut (June) today closed around 9610, almost up by 0.36% after making an opening
session low of 9544 and day high of 9640. Indian market today opened in a
subdued note amid tepid global cues in a holiday
thinned market following another Scud missile launch by NK; UK, USA & China
is closed today for their holidays.
US market closed almost flat at around record high closing
following better than expected Q1 GDP revision and other mixed economic data.
Market may be optimistic that despite soft US economic data, USA & global
economy may withstand gradual Fed rate hike & B/S tightening. FFR is still
showing around 80-90% of a June rate hike as there is still no indication for a
pause by various Fed speakers; all eyes may be now on Friday’s NFP as its may
be a perfect excuse for Fed to be on hold in June(if the NFP data is terrible).
Fed may also consider growing US political risks, which may flare again this
week as Trump returns from his 1st “historic” foreign & G7 tour;
Trump is back again with his usual “Twitter Tantrum”, which may be the biggest
source of market volatility in the recent months.
Also, concern for UK election with decreasing lead for the
conservative party (UK PM May) may be a cause of subdued global sentiment;
although May is supposed to win by at least 5% margin. A thin margin for May in
the forthcoming UK election next week may be bad for “soft Brexit”.
Back to home, after 3rd anniversary of Modinomics
rally, Indian market today focused more on NPA policy, GST, monsoon and macro
data (PMI/GDP) in this week amid mixed Q4 report card (so far). GST, being a
“one product, one national tax” instead of the original concept of “one tax,
one nation”, may be a cause of concern for all the stakeholders for its
multiple taxes and lack of clarity on the input tax credit issue; thus GST disruption
fear may be weighing on the broader market as it could affect the Q2FY18
earnings adversely with its schedule launch on 1st July.
Also, lack of clarity of the NPA policy despite marathon meeting
on Friday with the RBI along with all the banks/ARC may be a cause of concern
for the market. Moreover, bond & loan default market buzz of RCOM may have
dampened the overall market sentiment today as the stressed ADAG group shares
were all down significantly, despite management’s deleveraging assurance (RCOM
will sell the real estate assets in New Delhi to repay debt !!).
Nifty was also under pressure today from Pharma shares following
horror results & tepid guidance from Sun Pharma and overall US FDA concern;
but Cipa bucked the trend and closed almost 3% higher as value buying/short
covering (?) may be slowly emerging for this bitten down sector (Nifty/overall
market is around life time high, but Pharma index is at lifetime low).
Nifty was under further pressure for Adani Ports today, which
was down by almost 6% amid royalty payment issues of its AU coal project. PSBS
(SBI/BOB) and some of the private banks (Yes/ICICI/Axis) were also under
pressure for NPA policy concern and huge debt of telecom sector, which may be
turning into a major NPA/NPL/stressed asset for the banks in the coming days as
a result of R-Jio led disruption in the telecom sector. IT, Cement & Metals
were also under good pressure today.
But, domestic marker also took some support from the IMD, which is
forecasting an imminent onset of SW monsoon at Kerala, which may be further
expanded to other parts of the country within next two weeks. Thus, better
(normal) monsoon (in advance) with signs of an even distribution of the same
all over the country is boosting the overall market sentiment significantly.
Any disappointment from the same may be also a cause for worry for the market. Due
to better monsoon prospect, today FMCG & auto counters has supported the market
significantly; also upbeat result of ITC has helped the counter & the
market apart from RIL & Powergrid.
Overall, powers of liquidity from both FPIS & DIIS are
helping the Indian market to a great extent despite stretched valuation on the
assumption of higher earnings growth for FY-18; although overall Q4FY17 report
card may be still mixed. Stock selection with earnings visibility and good debt
profile along with a sound management may be the keys in the days ahead.
Meanwhile, although Draghi is sounded a little upbeat about
prospect of EU economy, it seems that he/ECB has no plan for any QE tapering in
the near term; thus overall Draghi’s stance may be dovish and quite divergent
to Fed’s hawkish stance (unless Yellen surprised the market with a June hold).
Also, Draghi & Co may not be comfortable to let EURUSD rally further
towards 1.15-1.20 area as in that scenario, years of QE may be in jeopardy.
Technically, EURUSD
(1.1180) has to sustain over 1.11459 area; otherwise it may fall further
towards 1.0840-1.07610 (1.07) ahead of NFP/Fed; only sustaining above 1.13
(1.1270-1.12930), EURUSD may rally further for 1.16450-1.1879 & 1.20 area
in the coming days.
SGX-NF
BNF
EURUSD
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