Market Mantra: 21/08/2017 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 9855 (+5)
For the Day:
Key support for NF: 9825/9790-9770/9705
Key resistance for NF: 9885/9905-9950/9980
Key support for BNF: 23925/23850-23750
Key resistance for BNF: 24275-24400
Hints for positional trading:
Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over
9905 area for further rally towards 9950/9980-10005/10035 & 10095-10115
area in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 9885 area, NF may fall
towards 9825/9770-9705 & 9660-9595 area in the short term (under bear case
scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24275 area for further rally
towards 24400-24525 & 24675-24750 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 24225 area, BNF may fall
towards 23925/23850-23750 & 23600-23500 area in the near term (under bear
case scenario).
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut
(Aug) may open around 9855, almost flat tracking mixed global/Asian cues;
almost all the major Asian markets are in red except China & Hong-Kong amid
US-SK war drill and subsequent war of words between NK & US coupled with WH
squabbling and policy paralysis.
On Friday weekend, late NY session, USD
& risk trade got some strength following Bannon’s exit as a chief WH strategist,
who was seen as a “nationalist” but “obstructionist” against some of Trump’s
policies and his core man like Cohn (chief economic adviser) & TSY
Secretary; i.e. globalists. Bannon may be also one of the key architects of
Trump’s “America First” policy.
Although, Trump is now trying to rejig
his core WH team, market may not be so much convinced as it may invite more troubles
from a person like Bannon, who are instrumental in Trump’s unexpected US
election win; as the war of word between Bannon and Trump & Co is getting
intensified, market may be jittery to some extent about Trump’s ability to pursue
his agenda of Trumponomics and resultant US policy paralysis.
Thus, geo-politics now may be impacting
the USD more than economics and under such scenario, market may be also
concerned about Yellen’s ability to normalize the US monetary policy (rate
hikes) despite decent US economic data; USD is under some stress due to ongoing
WH entertainment (political drama).
Thus, overnight (Friday weekend), US
market (DJ-30) closed in negative around 21675 (-0.35%), despite Bannon’s
removal by Trump was seen as a balancing act by the US Prez, who is under fire
from almost every side after his soft stance in the racist VA incident.
Also, dual terrorism incident at
Barcelona followed by some similar small mishaps in different parts of the EZ
may have affected the overall risk-on sentiment and also affecting the tourism
sector and market may be also concerned over increasing EU security compliance
cost on its budget.
Back to some, Indian market may focus
on Infy saga as it now appears that both the warring sides (Sikka/board &
NRN) have some points, but overall focus of the co may be well distracted due
to this ongoing ugly war of words.
Downgrade of Q2FY18 OR the overall
FY-18 earnings may be also on the card following muted Q1FYA18 earnings, which
saw a YOY decline of around 8.4% for Nifty; except some new generation private
banks (IIB, Yes, Kotak bank & HDFC duo) and some metals, most of the other
banks & PSBS, Pharma, IT, Auto, FMCG has reported subdued nos and guidance
due to DeMo & GST pain and on INR strength.
NPA resolution & PSBS recapitalization
may be now prime concern; as par some estimates, two leading PSBS (SBI &
PNB) accounts for more than 25% of the NPA. Govt/FMO, is now very hopeful on
the IBC mechanism on the notion that after IBC, defaulters are running behind
the banks/lenders to settle, which is quite opposite to earlier scenario under SARFASI
mechanism only.
But, whatever may be the narratives,
Govt and banks also want actual resolution of stressed assets and not
liquidation. For resolution, it seems that there are now two ways; either to
pay back & settle the NPA or change the present management under the ownerships
of the banks/lenders.
Both the above resolutions may be elusive
as the underlying projects or stressed assets are not viable in most of the
cases and even a management change can’t solve the stressed assets, the root
cause of which may be structural in nature with some exceptions. In any way,
banks have to undertake a deep hair cut, but for that their BS need to be
strong enough to take the shock. Thus, RBI may be also concerned about NPA
resolution & PSBS recapitalization.
SGX-NF
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