Market Wrap: 29/08/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Aug):9792 (-125; -1.26%) (TTM PE: 24.99;
Nr. 2 SD of 25; Avg PE: 20; TTM/FY-17 EPS: 392; NS: 9796)
NSE-BNF (Aug):24100 (-277; -1.14%) (TTM PE: 30.35;
Abv 3 SD of 30; Avg PE: 20 TTM/FY-17 EPS: 795; BNS: 24129)
For 30/08/2017:
Key support for NF: 9750-9700
Key resistance for NF: 9860-9905
Key support for BNF: 24000-23850
Key resistance for BNF: 24375-24575
Hints for positional trading:
On the flip side, sustaining below 9840 area, NF may fall
towards 9790-9750 & 9700-9660 area in the short term (under bear case
scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24375 area for further rally
towards 24475-24575 & 24675- 24775 area in the near term (under bullish
case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 24325 area, BNF may fall
towards 24200-24000 & 23850-23700 area in the near term (under bear case
scenario).
Indian market (Nifty Fut-Aug) today closed around 9792, plunged by almost 125
points (-1.25%) after making an opening high of 9879 and closing session low of
9783 tracking subdued global cues amid escalated Korean tensions and subsequent
strength in EURUSD over 1.20 due to risk aversions & an “Un-Dovish” Draghi
at Jackson Hole. A higher EUR is not good for EU stocks and similarly a lower
USD may not be supportive for export heavy Asian markets.
Apart from geo-political factors, fresh list of around 40 cos
released by RBI today for the NCLT/IBC cases may have also dampened the mood of
the market/banks and SBI also came under renewed pressure as out of those 40
stressed cos, SBI has good exposure to around 26 cos. Thus, today’s NK tensions
may have act as a trigger for selling in the Indian market as valuations may be
quite stretched amid muted Q1FY18 earnings coupled with concern of NPA &
Govt’s war on black money (shell cos).
Indian market (Nifty Fut-Aug) today opened around 9879, almost
38 points down tracking NK’s missile tests over JP airspace and soon after
opening weak, it dropped further and a weak EU market because of higher EUR/EU
bund yields have caused more selling for the domestic market coupled with a
fresh list of 40 corporate defaulters by RBI under NCLT.
Looking ahead, Indian market may come under further pressure if this NK missile games further escalates into serious events as
FIIS may turn into risk aversion mode and may use this as a trigger for
selling, considering stretched valuations, muted Q1 earnings & NPA woes;
they have already sold Indian equities worth Rs.13500 cr till yesterday in Aug
alone, the highest monthly sell after Nov’16 caused by DeMo blues.
Although, Govt/RBI/Banks are trying their best for a meaningful
resolution through various available means, actual NPA resolution figure may
not be improving as expected and may be also facing various controversies
including large haircuts by Banks & other legal challenges.
Indian market may also focus on cabinet restructuring &
macro data coupled with the proposed PSBS merger & consolidations. Some
auto cos are upbeat today after news that, Govt may issue a tender to buy 50000
e-3W by Nov’17.
Govt is also optimistic to enhance country’s domestic steel
consumption to at least 230 MT by 2030 against earlier narrative of 300 MT by
2025!! A higher domestic steel supply coupled with muted consumption may not be
good for the steel sector, most of which are significantly leveraged &
stressed borrowers and under RBI/NCLT lists.
Indian Govt has also assured that they will not change the FY in
2017, but may advance the budget presentation; a much below expected GST return
filling figure till yesterday may be also worrisome for the Govt.
Meanwhile, Mumbai, the financial capital of India is
experiencing one of the heaviest rains, causing widespread semi-flood like
situations in the City, which is another reminder for India’s poor age old
infrastructure & water logging. Normal trading operations at brokerage
offices may also be affected today, causing some market disruptions.
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 index will go back to being a gauge
of 50 stocks from tomorrow, when the next set of periodic changes kick in; ACC,
BOB, Tata Power and Tata Motors DVR will be excluded from the index, while
Bajaj Finance, HPCL and UPL will become part of the index; financials, energy
& automobiles will have most weightage in Nifty after the rejig.
Nifty was today dragged most by HDFC, RIL, HDFC Bank, IOC, INFY,
ITC, Yes Bank, Bharti Airtel & Axis bank by around 62 points altogether,
while it was supported by TECHM, M&M, Wipro marginally. Almost 47 scrips
out of 51 Nifty components were in red today.
Globally, almost all the
major Asian markets has plunged into moderate to deep red amid tepid global cues after NK fired three missiles (?) over JP
early this morning. As par confirmed reports, at least one missile was
successful and flew over JP airspace to land at a remote sea location, triggering
widespread caution & emergency over Japan.
This is a serious geo-political event as after 2009, NK fired
missiles into JP airspace, covering around 2700 km over its 90 mins flight
path, attaining a max 550 km height. Market is being gradually habituated over
regular & normal NK missile tests, but this being a JP airspace violation,
reaction from the market may be quite different this time.
JP has termed the latest NK missiles tests, flying over JP
airspace a “new serious development” and “unprecedented” & “grave threat”.
Although JP didn’t attempt to shoot down the NK missiles, it may be considering
installing some “THAAD” types of US missile defence system too in the days
ahead!!
Subsequently, JP and also SK has taken appropriate measures
against such future NK “provocations” and Korean tension has again triggered a
risk aversion sentiment across the global market, prompting safe heavens flow
to Yen, Gold, CHF, BTC and EUR is also getting stronger, causing more pressure
on global equities. SK has also undertaken a “live bomb dropping” exercise near
NK border in its show of “war readiness”.
So far Trump has not tweeted his “fire & fury” rhetoric for
NK, he may be busy with the devastating & tragic Harvey cyclone &
flood, but Pentagon has commented that the NK missiles has no threat for North
America (as NK fired its missiles towards JP instead of US/Guam!!). All eyes
may be now on Trump’s twitter feed!!
From the overall NK related geo-political tensions & US’s
stance, it now seems that US is more interested to sell their missile defence
system & other military hardware to both JP & SK, using NK warmongering
& tensions. Basically, the ongoing NK tension may be good for US economy
for its iconic defence industry and weak USD, which is ideal for Trump to make
“America great again” by exporting!!
Overnight US market (DJ-30/S&P-500) closed almost flat, but NASDAQ gained by
0.30% tracking catastrophic Harvey flood & damages and NK tensions. Overall
insurance, property/home developers, travelers, airlines, energies were in
pressure due to Harvey along with retail stocks (fear of Amazon led price cut
in grocery/FMCG items); but strength in healthcare (demand for medicines after
flood), biotech (M&A buzz) and some blue chip techs may have contained the
damage yesterday.
US stock future (SPX-500) is now trading around 2425, down by almost 0.65% on
risk aversion flows; looking ahead, 2415 area may be an vital support for
SPX-500 and below that 2395-2375 may be clearly visible; apart from
geo-political issues, US GDP may be also affected due to this Harvey flood;
although subsequent Govt capex may also act as a fiscal stimulus later.
Elsewhere, Australia
(ASX-200) closed around 5669, down by almost 0.70% amid some rebound in
AUDUSD ahead of some key AU economic data and further dragged by financials,
consumer discretionary; a risk aversion mode caused by the hermit state of NK
missile game may be not good for AUD; it got some strength today after upbeat
ANZ-ROY consumer confidence data.
Japan (Nikkei-225) closed around 19363, down by almost 0.45%, but off the low
tracking some rebound in USDJPY, which is now flirting below 109 and so far
made a low of 108.41 after the NK missile tests over JP airspace. A strong Yen
caused by risk aversion (global repatriation by JP investors) flows is not good
for JP economy & the market, being heavily export oriented. Today, JP
economy minister sounds quite optimistic about consumer spending.
Apart from jolt from NK missile, JP market may be also affecting
today by energy related shares as a fall out from Harvey in US oil-hub (Texas
& Houston).
China (SSE) was closed in slight green around 3365 (+0.08%), off the low
ahead of some key earnings despite the NK tensions & US threat of trade
sanctions; China market may be helped by some techs & upbeat copper today.
PBOC today fixed USDCNY at 6.6293 vs 6.6353 and injected a net
10 bln Yuan by OMO; it seems that PBOC may bring down the USDCNY towards 6.55
area just before China party congress, aiming for deleveraging & stability
with modest growth above 6-6.5% of its economy coupled with an upbeat &
vibrant stock market.
All eyes may be on the China PMI & other forthcoming macro
data, but early indicators may be suggesting a steady but mixed economic data
from China this time.
Meanwhile, China has called for restraint & patience over
NK’s latest missile games over JP as only pressure & sanctions on NK may
not resolve these issues, a proper environment of dialogues may be necessary.
Hong-Kong (HKG-33) is also trading in moderate red around 27740, down by almost
0.60% dragged by NK related risk-off mode and US Harvey effect on energy
shares.
SK market (Kospi) was also down by around 0.76% amid NK geo-political tensions
and further dragged down by techs & automobiles; but being supported by
forecast of an upbeat earnings & defence stocks following NK warmongering.
Crude Oil (WTI) is now trading in green around 46.65, up by almost 0.25% on
news that Russia & Saudi Arabia may be considering further production cuts;
earlier yesterday it was down on concern of glut as refineries in the US Harvey
affected areas will be unable to function for some time amid serious oil infra
damages.
Meanwhile, Gold is
now trading around 1324, up by almost 0.50% and almost at months high as smart
money is now running for the safety of the yellow metal amid NK risk aversion
& missile games. Technically, Gold now need to sustain over 1330-1340 area
for 1355-1375; otherwise it may again came down towards 1300-1260 zone in the
coming days, depending upon the next “war of words” between Trump & Kim.
Elsewhere, EU market
WAS trading in deep red around 1.50% lower in Stoxx-600 tracking NK missile
panic over JP airspace and subsequent strength in EURUSD above 1.20 mark
coupled with an “un-dovish” Draghi at Jackson Hole and impact of Harvey typhoon
on US economy (GDP) and Fed’s dovish stance. A strong EUR may not be good for
export heavy EU economy & the market.
Market may be also concerned that in this NK game of chicken,
even if there is no immediate chance of a full fledged war with US, considering
NK’s nuke insurance, it remains a risk for the market (risk assets). Trump
tweeted that “all options are on the table for NK” and further commented that
“the world has received NK’s latest message loud & clear”. Both Trump &
Abe has agreed for more diplomatic pressure on NK from the international
community (China & also Russia) to convince the hermit kingdom.
DAX-30 is trading around 1.30% down, while FTSE-100 is around 1%
in red and CAC-40 is down by almost 1.25%.
NF
BNF
EURUSD
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