Market Wrap: 03/08/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Aug): 10039 (-62; -0.62%) (TTM PE: 25.35;
Abv 2 SD of 25; Avg PE: 20; TTM EPS: 395; NS: 10014)
NSE-BNF (Aug): 24782 (-352; -0.81%) (TTM PE: 31.04;
Abv 3 SD of 30; Avg PE: 20 TTM EPS: 795; BNS: 24675)
For 04/08/2017:
Key support for NF: 10014/9980-9945/9920
Key resistance for NF: 10100/10155-10205
Key support for BNF: 24700-24550
Key resistance for BNF: 25150-25275
Hints for positional trading:
Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over
10100 area for further rally towards 10155-10205* & 10275-10325 in the
short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10080 area, NF may fall
towards 10014/9980*-9945/9925 & 9875-9825 area in the short term (under
bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 25150 area for further rally
towards 25275-25500* & 25695 -25865 area in the near term (under bullish
case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25100-25050 area, BNF may
fall towards 24925-24700* & 24550-24350 area in the near term (under bear
case scenario).
Nifty Fut (Aug) today closed around 10039, slips by another 62
points (-0.62%) after making an opening session high of 10088 and late day low
of 10024 and dragged by banks & other rate sensitive stocks, such as auto,
real estate as hopes of further rate cuts in 2017 may be shattered after
yesterday’s hawkish cut stance by RBI; RIL saved the day today (+1.28%);
otherwise Nifty may have corrected more.
RIL and other Oil & gas companies were upbeat today, because
Govt has planned to gradually eliminate the subsidy of kerosene and asked all
the state oil marketing companies to increase prices by 0.25 paisa every
fortnight. Govt may be planning to scrap all types of subsidies on fuels, gas,
fertilizers & foods and instead may transfer certain amount of fixed
subsidy to the bank accounts of the BPL family under DBT to plug the huge
leakage.
Market may be also concerned about stretched valuation as TTM PE
is still hovering above 25; a strong INR & GST disruption may be affecting
the overall earnings momentum of the Indian market as almost 60% of Nifty
components are export heavy. Despite a hawkish cut by RBI yesterday, USDINR
slides further on hopes of greater fund inflow in equity as well as bond
market, which is also stable overall.
A terrible Service PMI at 45.9 & a composite PMI of 45 for
July may have also affected the Indian market sentiment today, coupled with
subdued global cues. The shocking PMI may be an exception for July due to GST
disruptions, but it may be also an indication that apart from IT & other
formal sectors, job cuts may be also acute in the informal sector due to DeMo
& GST disruptions; i.e. it may be a long term issue.
Almost 80% of Indian economy may be unorganized / informal and
most of those may find it quite difficult to continue their business after
paying the full compliance cost of being formal. At the end of the day, a
central bank’s monetary policy aim may be maximum employment with reasonable
inflation and growth; adequate real wage growths may only spur discretionary
consumer spending & stimulate the economy.
Thus, a simple rate cut by RBI may not resolve India’s massive
unemployment or under employment problem and subsequent de-growth of the
economy; it needs a structural resolution.
Market may be also concerned about NPA/IBC resolution mechanism
and its ultimate result; banks as well as market may be also expecting a quick
resolution rather than liquidation of the stressed assets, because liquidation
may not be helpful for both banks & industry.
As of now, symptoms of actual resolution may be also looking
very remote and liquidation of companies may be the ultimate solution under
IBC; the problem is that there may not be enough eligible buyers, even at
reasonable prices for all such stressed assets and in most of these stressed
assets, there may be a serious question of viability of the projects itself.
Today Nifty was supported by RIL, Bharti Airtel, Grasim, Ambuja
Cement, TECHM, TCS & Auro Pharma, while it was dragged by Lupin, HDFC duo,
ITC, Tata Motors, Coal India, BOB, Hindalco, Yes Bank, SBI, Axis, ICICI &
Kotak Mahindra Bank.
Mixed EU market movement during Indian session may
have also affected the domestic market sentiment today ahead of BOE, which
later came out with a surprised dovish hold; subsequently GBP plunged and FTSE
goes higher; but DAX is continue under pressure on unabated strength in EUR,
still hovering around 1.19 area.
Some upbeat earnings & economic data across EZ
in the past couple of days may be also supporting the overall EU market
sentiment; Stoxx-50 is now almost trading flat at 3463 (+0.12%).
Today, Czech Central bank has raised its rate after
2008 and is the 1st central bank in EU to hike in the last five
year; this may be an indication of a new tightening cycle (QT) in EU and
another strong signal that ECB may also start its QE tapering & subsequent
QT from Jan’18 itself, as economic outlook is increasingly looking very
optimistic across EZ, which does not warrant the continuation of an
extraordinary monetary stimulus (QQE).
SGX-NF
BNF
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