Tuesday, 29 August 2017

Nifty May Open In Deep Red Amid Tepid Global Cues/Risk Aversion After NK Fired Another Missile Over Japan Airspace; A Higher EUR & Harvey Devastation in US May Drag The Global Market; Indian Market May Focus On Cabinet Expansion & Macro Data



Market Mantra: 29/08/2017 (09:00)

SGX-NF: 9875 (-41)

For the Day: 

Key support for NF: 9840-9790

Key resistance for NF: 9940-9980

Key support for BNF: 24300-24200

Key resistance for BNF: 24550-24675

Hints for positional trading:

Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 9940 area for further rally towards 9980-10030 & 10075-10155 area in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 9920 area, NF may fall towards 9880-9840 & 9790-9700 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24525 area for further rally towards 24575-24675 & 24775-24875 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 24475 area, BNF may fall towards 24300-24200 & 24000- 23900 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Aug) may open around 9875, almost down by 41 points amid tepid global cues after NK fired three missiles (?) over JP airspace early this morning. As par confirmed reports, at least one missile was successful and flew over JP airspace to land at a remote sea location, triggering widespread caution over Japan. This is a serious geo-political event as after 1998, NK fired missiles into JP airspace, covering around 2700 km over its 90 mins flight path.

JP has termed the latest NK missiles tests flying over JP airspace a new serious development and “unprecedented” & “grave threat”; although JP didn’t attempt to shoot down the NK missiles. JP may be considering installing some “THAAD” types of US missile defence system too!!

Subsequently, JP and also SK has taken appropriate measures against such future NK “provocation” and Korean tension has again triggered a risk aversion sentiment across the global market, prompting safe heavens flow to Yen, Gold, CHF, BTC and EUR is also getting stronger, causing more pressure on global equities. SK has also undertaken a “live bomb dropping” exercise near NK border in its show of “war readiness”.

So far Trump has not tweeted his “fire & fury” rhetoric for NK, may be busy with the devastating & tragic Harvey cyclone & flood, but Pentagon has commented that the NK missiles has no threat for North America.

From the overall NK related geo-political tensions & US’s stance, it now seems that US is more interested to sell their missile defence system & other military hardware to both JP & SK, using NK warmongering & tensions. Basically, the ongoing NK tension may be good for US economy for its iconic defence industry and weak USD, which is ideal for Trump to make “America great again”!!

Overnight US market (DJ-30/S&P-500) closed almost flat, but NASDAQ dropped by 0.28% tracking catastrophic Harvey flood & damages and NK tensions. Overall insurance, property/home developers, airlines, energies were in pressure due to Harvey along with retail stocks (fear of Amazon led price cut in grocery/FMCG items); but strength in healthcare (demand for medicines after flood) and some blue chip techs may have contained the damage yesterday.

US stock future (SPX-500) is now trading around 2425, down by almost 0.65% on risk aversion flows; looking ahead, 2415 area may be an vital support for SPX-500 and below that 2395-2375 may be clearly visible; apart from geo-political issues, US GDP may be also affected due to this Harvey flood; although subsequent Govt capex may also act as a fiscal stimulus later.

Back to home, Indian market may be in pressure, if this NK missile games further escalates into serious events as FIIS may turn into risk aversion mode and may act as a trigger for selling, considering stretched valuations & NPA woes. Although, Govt/RBI/Banks are trying their best for a meaningful resolution through various available means, actual resolution figure may not be improving as expected and may be also facing various controversies including large haircuts & legal challenges.

Looking ahead, Indian market may also focus on cabinet restructuring & macro data coupled with the proposed PSBS merger & consolidations. 



 NF

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