Monday, 18 December 2017

Nifty Jumped On Prospect Of A Clear Win For NAMO In GJ Election



Market Wrap: 15/12/2017 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Dec):10357 (+80; +0.78%)

(TTM PE: 26.43; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 391; NS: 10333; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)

NSE-BNF (Nov):25528 (+315; +1.25%)

(TTM PE: 29.34; Near 3-SD of 30; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 867; BNS: 25440; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)

For 18/12/2017: Dec-Fut

Key support for NF: 10340/10305-10270/10220

Key resistance for NF: 10405/10425-10495/10535

Key support for BNF: 25200-24950/24800

Key resistance for BNF: 25500-25750/25875

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Dec (NF) has to sustain over 10425 area for further rally towards 10475-10510/10535 & 10580-10640 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10405 area, NF may fall towards 10340/10305-10270 & 10220-10190/10150 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25750 area for further rally towards 25875- 26050 & 26200-26325 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25450 area, BNF may fall towards 24300/25200-25100/24950 & 24800-24650 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Indian market (Nifty-Fut/India-50) today (15th Dec) closed around 10357, jumped by almost 80 points (+0.78%) cheering a clean win for NAMO in GJ as par median exit poll forecasts and bucked the negative Global/Asian cues today on US tax reform uncertainty; it made a day high of around 10400 and session low of 10343; but dragged a little bit in the late session as BJP’s 110 seats in GJ is now almost discounted and market will wait for the actual result on Monday along with HP (also a clear win for BJP).

Market today traded in a narrow range for most of the day after opening gap up around 10364 on MODI magic after as all the exit polls predicted a clean win for BJP in the GJ election, although INC is also poised to improve its figure. 

All eyes will be now on 18th Dec, when actual result will flash out as 110 seats for BJP in GJ is now already discounted against 115 in 2012 and the magic number of 120 (2/3rd majority) in the 180 seats GJ assembly.

Now, anything above 120-150 may cause more rally and below 100-80 will be perceived as negative. But after GJ cheer rally, market may go back to the reality of stretched valuations, NPA resolution, PSBS recaps mechanism, higher oil & inflation, concerns for fiscal slippages-the headwinds list is quite long.

But after market hours, India’s trade deficit figure came little improved; exports rebound in Nov, much to the relief of the policymakers after overall slowdown in the last few months. Exports for Nov’17 was at $26.20 bln vs 23.10 bln (MOM); i.e. it grew by around 13.5% on MOM basis and 31% on YOY basis on strength of engineering & petroleum products shipment. But the overall trend in export growth may be also in line with its Asian peers.

Today Nifty was mostly helped by HDFC Bank, VEDL, HDFC, Yes Bank, Bajaj Fin, M&M, Eicher Motors, Infy, L&T, IOC by almost 62 points cumulatively.

Nifty was mostly dragged by TECHM, ICICI Bank, Cipla, TCS, SBI, RIL, BOSCH, ONGC, Bharti Infratel, Power Grid by around 13 points altogether.

Overall, today Indian market was helped by banks & financials, automakers, media, metals (better growth forecast by Fed & ECB apart from China story), reality, pharma, consumption, while it was dragged by selected techs, pharma, private banks, and energies to some extent.

Indusind & Yes banks got support on Sensex inclusion, while Cipla & Lupin dragged on exclusion. Yes banks also paid almost 30% advance tax for Q3FY18 (YOY). Automakers were upbeat on buzz of price hike in new year (2018) and analysts optimism. Gujarat (GJ) based cos soared on NAMO optimism in the state election; most of the groups are seen closed to BJP.


BTCUSD:  



 SGX-NF


BNF


 USDJPY

No comments:

Post a Comment