Market Wrap: 15/12/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Dec):10357 (+80; +0.78%)
(TTM PE: 26.43; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 391;
NS: 10333; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)
NSE-BNF (Nov):25528 (+315; +1.25%)
(TTM PE: 29.34; Near 3-SD of 30; TTM Q1FY18 EPS:
867; BNS: 25440; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)
For 18/12/2017: Dec-Fut
Key support for NF:
10340/10305-10270/10220
Key resistance for NF:
10405/10425-10495/10535
Key support for BNF:
25200-24950/24800
Key resistance for BNF:
25500-25750/25875
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty Fut-Dec (NF) has to sustain over 10425 area for further
rally towards 10475-10510/10535 & 10580-10640 zone in the short term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10405 area, NF may fall towards
10340/10305-10270 & 10220-10190/10150 zone in the short term (under bear
case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25750 area for further
rally towards 25875- 26050 & 26200-26325 zone in the near term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25450 area, BNF may fall towards
24300/25200-25100/24950 & 24800-24650 area in the near term (under bear
case scenario).
Indian market (Nifty-Fut/India-50) today (15th Dec) closed around 10357, jumped by almost 80 points
(+0.78%) cheering a clean win for NAMO in GJ as par
median exit poll forecasts and bucked the negative Global/Asian cues today on
US tax reform uncertainty; it made a day high of around 10400 and session low
of 10343; but dragged a little bit in the late session as BJP’s 110 seats in GJ
is now almost discounted and market will wait for the actual result on Monday
along with HP (also a clear win for BJP).
Market today traded in a narrow range for most of the day after
opening gap up around 10364 on MODI magic after as all the exit polls predicted
a clean win for BJP in the GJ election, although INC is also poised to improve
its figure.
All eyes will be now on 18th Dec, when actual result
will flash out as 110 seats for BJP in GJ is now already discounted against 115
in 2012 and the magic number of 120 (2/3rd majority) in the 180
seats GJ assembly.
Now, anything above 120-150 may cause more rally and below
100-80 will be perceived as negative. But after GJ cheer rally, market may go
back to the reality of stretched valuations, NPA resolution, PSBS recaps
mechanism, higher oil & inflation, concerns for fiscal slippages-the
headwinds list is quite long.
But after market hours, India’s trade deficit figure came little
improved; exports rebound in Nov, much to the relief of the policymakers after
overall slowdown in the last few months. Exports for Nov’17 was at $26.20 bln
vs 23.10 bln (MOM); i.e. it grew by around 13.5% on MOM basis and 31% on YOY
basis on strength of engineering & petroleum products shipment. But the
overall trend in export growth may be also in line with its Asian peers.
Today Nifty was mostly helped by HDFC Bank, VEDL, HDFC, Yes
Bank, Bajaj Fin, M&M, Eicher Motors, Infy, L&T, IOC by almost 62 points
cumulatively.
Nifty was mostly dragged by TECHM, ICICI Bank, Cipla, TCS, SBI,
RIL, BOSCH, ONGC, Bharti Infratel, Power Grid by around 13 points altogether.
Overall, today Indian market was helped by banks & financials,
automakers, media, metals (better growth forecast by Fed & ECB apart from
China story), reality, pharma, consumption, while it was dragged by selected
techs, pharma, private banks, and energies to some extent.
Indusind & Yes banks got support on Sensex inclusion, while
Cipla & Lupin dragged on exclusion. Yes banks also paid almost 30% advance
tax for Q3FY18 (YOY). Automakers were upbeat on buzz of price hike in new year
(2018) and analysts optimism. Gujarat (GJ) based cos soared on NAMO optimism in
the state election; most of the groups are seen closed to BJP.
SGX-NF
BNF
USDJPY
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