Nifty May Be In Stress In The Coming Days On GJ Boost Up For INC & In Line With Expectations Victory For BJP

Market Mantra: 18/12/2017 (09:00)

SGX-NF: 10200 (-157)

For the Day: updated: 13:30

For 15/12/2017: Dec-Fut

Key support for NF: 10425-10305/10220 and 10150/10040 & 9995-9790/9715

Key resistance for NF: 10495/10535-10580/10640

Key support for BNF: 25200-24950/24800

Key resistance for BNF: 25500/25775-25875/26050 & 26200-25325

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Dec (NF) has to sustain over 10495 area for further rally towards 10535/10550 & 10580/10600-10640 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10475-10425 area, NF may fall towards 10340/10305-10220 & 10150-10040 and 9995-9790/9715 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25775 area for further rally towards 25875- 26050 & 26200-26325 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25725 area, BNF may fall towards 24300/25200-25100/24950 & 24800-24650 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Nifty Fut (Dec) has opened around 10200, gap down by almost 157 points as BJP unexpectedly slips in the early trend; overall Global/Asian cues are positive today on US tax reform optimism.

Indian market (Nifty/India-50) is now trading around 10440, soared by almost 0.80% and jumped over 3.7% from the earlier opening panic low of 10060 as BJP was seen slipping in the earlier trend, quite divergently from the exit poll prediction of 110 seats for BJP.

As par latest trend, BJP is set to win around 106 seats vs INC’s 73 seats; i.e. the result is almost as par exit polls expectations. Although, INC is out from another state (HP), no one perhaps expect a INC win in GJ this time too. But the close fight in GJ this time shows that NAMO is still the king-maker of BJP; i.e. too much dependency on NAMO and it’s his leadership & trust of people, which matters most.

Also, rural/famer distress is now a reality after DeMo & other structural reason; it’s the urban support which is helping BJP right now. Also, youth un/underemployment & the complex form of GST is another issue, which may continue to hog the limelight in 2019 general election.

For INC, this may be a respectable defeat and RAGA will be a serious contender for 2019 election and the game will be not one sided which is very important for a vibrant democracy. A 11% vote swing from 2014 against BJP and 5% in favour of INC may be just an warning signal that in politics everything is possible as RAGA/INC will be charged up from being “not a factor” few months ago.

After politics, market will now focus on economics; earnings, PSBS recaps. NPA resolution etc; the list is long.

SGX-NF

SPX-500