Market Wrap: 11/12/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Dec):10352 (+60; +0.59%)
(TTM PE: 26.40; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 391;
NS: 10322; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)
NSE-BNF (Nov):25421 (+56; +0.22%)
(TTM PE: 29.30; Near 3-SD of 30; TTM Q1FY18 EPS:
867; BNS: 25405; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)
For 12/12/2017: Dec-Fut
Key support for NF: 10295-10230/10190
Key resistance for NF: 10375-10395/10425
Key support for BNF:
25200-25100/24850
Key resistance for BNF:
25575-25775/25875
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty Fut-Dec (NF) has to sustain over 10395 area for further
rally towards 10425/10475 -10510/10535 & 10575-10640 zone in the short term
(under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10375-10355 area, NF may fall towards 10295-10230
& 10190-10150 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25575 area for further
rally towards 25775-25875 & 26050-26200 zone in the near term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25525 area, BNF may fall towards 25200-25100
& 24850 & 24750-24650 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Indian market (Nifty-Fut/India-50) today (11th Dec) closed around 10352, surged by almost 60 points (+0.59%) after
making an closing session high of 10354 and a day low of 10302 tracking
positive global cues and hopes for a clean win by BJP in GJ this time despite
indication of a close fight between NAMO & RAGA as being revealed by
different media & unofficial betting sources.
Regional Asian market sentiment was upbeat today on
China optimism after reports that China Govt/regulator may go slow for
implementation of the new wealth management regulation; also new loans growth
for Nov was upbeat. In Japan, gauge of JP Q4 large company business
conditions climbed to a 2-year high.
As
par various opinion polls, if BJP wins greater than 120-150 seats in GJ this
time, expect some more rally till around 10600-10675 and if it gets less than 100
seats, expect steep correction till around 9750-9700; if it gets around 100-110
seats, expect Nifty Rangebound around 10550 as this has been already discounted
now to a large extent.
In
any way, whatever may be the GJ election result, earnings need to justify steep
valuation and Nifty EPS should come around 520 for FY-18 as par earlier
analysts projection. But going by the actual muted trend, it looks very tough
and as par present trend, FY-18 Nifty EPS may come around 418 this time,
although it may be also a milestone, being above 400 after a long time (if come
indeed).
Today
Nifty was supported mostly by HDFC, ITC, TCS, SBI (analyst upgrade) M&M,
Maruti (analyst optimism), HDFC Bank, Bosch, Auro Pharma & Wipro by around
48 points cumulatively.
Nifty
was dragged mostly by RIL (analyst downgrade), Bharti Infratel, Asian Paints,
ONGC, NTPC, Adani Ports, Tata Motors, IBULLS HSG, Yes Bank & Hindalco by
almost 15 points altogether.
Overall,
today Indian market was helped by Banks & Financials, Auto, FMCG, Techs, Media,
Pharma, Metals, Consumer Staples & Infra, while dragged by Reality &
Energies
SGX-NF
BNF
USDJPY
No comments:
Post a Comment