Market Wrap: 14/12/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Dec):10285 (+70; +0.69%)
(TTM PE: 26.22; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 391;
NS: 10252; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)
NSE-BNF (Nov):25219 (+181; +0.72%)
(TTM PE: 29.03; Near 3-SD of 30; TTM Q1FY18 EPS:
867; BNS: 25168; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)
For 15/12/2017: Dec-Fut
Key support for NF: 10340/10305-10270/10220
Key resistance for NF: 10405/10425-10495/10535
Key support for BNF: 25200-24950/24800
Key resistance for BNF: 25500-25750/25875
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty Fut-Dec (NF) has to sustain over 10425 area for further rally
towards 10475-10510/10535 & 10580-10640 zone in the short term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10405 area, NF may fall towards 10340/10305-10270
& 10220-10190/10150 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25500 area for further
rally towards 25750-25875 & 26050-26200 zone in the near term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25450 area, BNF may fall towards 24300/25200-25100/24950
& 24800-24650 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Indian market (Nifty-Fut/India-50) today (14th Dec) closed around 10285, soared by almost 70 points (+0.69%)
and well off the day low of 1063 on renewed hopes of a convincing BJP/Modi win
in GJ after an influential economist/poll forecaster (Bhalla) predicted that
BJP will win in around 125 seats vs INC’s 57; the prediction is in sharp
contrast of earlier media opinion poll but it’s based on average of all the
opinion polls, historical data and voting turn out.
Bhalla has incredible accuracy in Bihar &
Delhi election outcome in the past; market made a high of 10297 soon after this
prediction tweet.
Indian market today opened around 10260, gap up by almost 33
points tracking subdued Global/Asian cues on lower USD after an expected
“dovish hike” by Fed yesterday; for India although a lower USD may be good for
the overall economy being import heavy unlike its Asian peers, almost 60% of
Nifty earnings now comes from export and thus a lower USD is also not good for
the Indian market.
Market slipped to the day’s low soon after opening firm on
worries about close fight between BJP & INC this time in GJ and thus all
focus may be on today’s evening exit poll, which will be released after market
hours.
Median Exit Polls Shows A
Clean Win For BJP:
After market hours, polls of different exit polls
shows that BJP may win around 108 seats vs 73 seats of INC in GJ and BJP may
also make a clean sweep in HP. The median exit polls figure may be also in line
with unofficial betting figures of around 100-105 for BJP; thus it may not be a
great surprise at all, although for the last few days market was under pressure
on BJP’s mark of below 100 or even below INC’s numbers by some opinion polls.
Actual result will come on Monday (18th
Dec) and if it comes around the median of exit polls (108 vs 73), there may not
be any further “Santa Rally” as it will be seen as status-co for BJP, being
below magic mark of 120 (2/3rd majority), but if BJP gets anything
above 120-150, expect another 2-5% rally on the perception that despite DeMo
& GST blues and poor labour market conditions, Modi magic is still unbeatable.
Despite “hard work” by RAGA this time, NAMO has
made a political master stroke by the so called “Pak” link to GJ election and
INC has also made a political suicide in terms of Ayer’s controversy over his “Neech”
remark for NAMO, which was used by the later as a “caste” politics; but in “politics
& war”, nothing is immoral and expect a similar hard fight in the 2019
general election, if RAGA got some boost from GJ election; but his economic
reform agenda needs to be cleared apart from “freebies”.
After GJ election euphoria, market will focus on
Indian macros, earnings, NPA resolution & PSBS recaps.
Today, Nifty was helped mostly by ITC, IOC, HDFC
Bank, RIL, HPCL, INFY, HDFC, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank & HCL TECH by almost 51
points cumulatively while it was dragged by TCS, UPL, Gail, Sun Pharma &
Auro Pharma by around 12 points altogether.
Overall, today Indian market was helped by Banks
& Financials, Auto, FMCG, mixed Techs & Pharma, Metals, Reality,
Consumption, Energy/OMC, while it was dragged by media stocks.
SGX-NF
BNF
EURUSD
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