Friday 15 December 2017

Nifty Soared In Late Trade On Renewed Hopes Of A Convincing NAMO Win In GJ



Market Wrap: 14/12/2017 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Dec):10285 (+70; +0.69%)

(TTM PE: 26.22; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 391; NS: 10252; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)

NSE-BNF (Nov):25219 (+181; +0.72%)

(TTM PE: 29.03; Near 3-SD of 30; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 867; BNS: 25168; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)

For 15/12/2017: Dec-Fut

Key support for NF: 10340/10305-10270/10220

Key resistance for NF: 10405/10425-10495/10535

Key support for BNF: 25200-24950/24800

Key resistance for BNF: 25500-25750/25875

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Dec (NF) has to sustain over 10425 area for further rally towards 10475-10510/10535 & 10580-10640 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10405 area, NF may fall towards 10340/10305-10270 & 10220-10190/10150 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25500 area for further rally towards 25750-25875 & 26050-26200 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25450 area, BNF may fall towards 24300/25200-25100/24950 & 24800-24650 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Indian market (Nifty-Fut/India-50) today (14th Dec) closed around 10285, soared by almost 70 points (+0.69%) and well off the day low of 1063 on renewed hopes of a convincing BJP/Modi win in GJ after an influential economist/poll forecaster (Bhalla) predicted that BJP will win in around 125 seats vs INC’s 57; the prediction is in sharp contrast of earlier media opinion poll but it’s based on average of all the opinion polls, historical data and voting turn out.  

Bhalla has incredible accuracy in Bihar & Delhi election outcome in the past; market made a high of 10297 soon after this prediction tweet.

Indian market today opened around 10260, gap up by almost 33 points tracking subdued Global/Asian cues on lower USD after an expected “dovish hike” by Fed yesterday; for India although a lower USD may be good for the overall economy being import heavy unlike its Asian peers, almost 60% of Nifty earnings now comes from export and thus a lower USD is also not good for the Indian market.

Market slipped to the day’s low soon after opening firm on worries about close fight between BJP & INC this time in GJ and thus all focus may be on today’s evening exit poll, which will be released after market hours.

Median Exit Polls Shows A Clean Win For BJP:

After market hours, polls of different exit polls shows that BJP may win around 108 seats vs 73 seats of INC in GJ and BJP may also make a clean sweep in HP. The median exit polls figure may be also in line with unofficial betting figures of around 100-105 for BJP; thus it may not be a great surprise at all, although for the last few days market was under pressure on BJP’s mark of below 100 or even below INC’s numbers by some opinion polls.

Actual result will come on Monday (18th Dec) and if it comes around the median of exit polls (108 vs 73), there may not be any further “Santa Rally” as it will be seen as status-co for BJP, being below magic mark of 120 (2/3rd majority), but if BJP gets anything above 120-150, expect another 2-5% rally on the perception that despite DeMo & GST blues and poor labour market conditions, Modi magic is still unbeatable. 

Despite “hard work” by RAGA this time, NAMO has made a political master stroke by the so called “Pak” link to GJ election and INC has also made a political suicide in terms of Ayer’s controversy over his “Neech” remark for NAMO, which was used by the later as a “caste” politics; but in “politics & war”, nothing is immoral and expect a similar hard fight in the 2019 general election, if RAGA got some boost from GJ election; but his economic reform agenda needs to be cleared apart from “freebies”.

After GJ election euphoria, market will focus on Indian macros, earnings, NPA resolution & PSBS recaps.

Today, Nifty was helped mostly by ITC, IOC, HDFC Bank, RIL, HPCL, INFY, HDFC, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank & HCL TECH by almost 51 points cumulatively while it was dragged by TCS, UPL, Gail, Sun Pharma & Auro Pharma by around 12 points altogether.

Overall, today Indian market was helped by Banks & Financials, Auto, FMCG, mixed Techs & Pharma, Metals, Reality, Consumption, Energy/OMC, while it was dragged by media stocks.


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