Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/USDINR/SPX-500): 31/08/2018

China’s Trump trade war and other fragile EM pain may be India’s gain--

Updated: 08:45

Nifty-SGX-NF: 11710 (-30; -0.26%)                

Bank Nifty-BNF: 28140 (-85; -0.30%)

SPX-500: 2900 (-2; -0.06%)

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:

11685/11660*-11630/11600-11570/11530-11500/11460

Resistance to NF:

11735/11775*-11800/11820-11850/11900-11935/11970

Support for BNF:

28100/28000*-27825/27750-27650/27350-27200/27000

Resistance to BNF:

28350/28450*-28550/28685-28800/29050-29115/29415

Support for USDINR-I:

69.35/69.15*-68.95/68.50-68.15/67.65-67.40/67.00

Resistance to USDINR-I:

69.90/70.35*-70.55/71.00-71.30/71.50-71.75/72.05

Support for SPX-500:

2880*/2860-2845/2830-2810/2800-2790/2770

Resistance to SPX-500:

2910/2925*-2940/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070

Technical View (Nifty, Bank Nifty, USDINR-I, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 11820 for a further rally to 11850/11900-11935/11970-12070/12175 in the near term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 11800-11775/11735 NF may fall to 11685/11660-11630/11600-11570/11530 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty Fut-I (BNF) has to sustain over 28350 for a further rally to 28450/28550-28685/28800-29050/29115 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 28300 BNF may fall to 28100/28000-27825/27750-27650/27350 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, USDINR-I has to sustain over 69.35 for a further rally to 69.90/70.35-70.55/71.00-71.30/71.50 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 69.15, USDINR-I may fall to 68.95/68.50-68.15/67.65-67.40/67.00 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 has to sustain over 2925 for a further rally to 2940/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2915-2905 SPX-500 may fall to 2880/2860-2845/2830-2810/2800 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Valuation metrics:

Nifty-50: 11677; Q4FY18 EPS: 402; Q4FY18 PE: 29.05; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-19 EPS: 425; Proj Fair Value: 8500

Bank Nifty: 28103; Q4FY18 EPS: 519; Q4FY18 PE: 54.15; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-19 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220

SPX-500: 2901; TTM Q4-2017 EPS: 111; TTM PE: 26.14

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