INFY: After Result Impact (Near Term Range :1900-2400) ??

Technically, INFY (CMP:1995) has good support around 1965 followed by 1924-1896 zone. Sustain below 1896-1880, it may fall to 1850-1817 & consecutive closing below 1817, it may crash to 1765-1700 zone (low probability as of now).

On the upside. INFY has to sustain above 1991-2024 zone for an immediate target of 2070-2100-2115 area. Sustain above 2115, it could target 2158-2200-2260 zone in the short term. Only a consecutive closing above 2260, it may scale to 2337-2350 area in the medium term. Sustain above 2350, INFY may scale 2410- 2450-2550 territory in the long run (FY:16-17).

Bottom Line (Technical Trading Levels):

1817-1850-1896-1924-1965-1991-2024-2070-2100-2115-2158-2200-
                                                                     2260-2337-2350-2410

INFY got corrected substantially for the last few trading sessions, specially yesterday, after it published its Q4 result during market hours, which was quite disappointing and below street expectations. This is mainly for some ramp-downs in some verticals like energy & telecom and headwinds in cross currency.

Going ahead, INFY is confident for a generalized revenue guidance growth of around 10-12 %, which may be slightly above market expectations (although below Nascom's sector guidance of 12-14%). But, INFY management appears to be in the process of building long term vision to target a revenue of around $20 bln in 2020 from the present level of around $9 bln and its legendary CEO, Vishal Sikka is quite confident, terming it as "feasible & viable".

Basically, INFY may be going through a fundamental & structural transition. Its concentrating more on automation of its various platforms to reduce operational cost, inorganic push by acquiring various strategically fit digital company and new start up focus for both short & long term goal. 

Its Indian operation is also growing fairly and may be expected to grow further, given the "Digital India" push by "Modinomics".  

With expected increase in discretionary spending for IT in various geographies, specially US & EU (where worst may be far behind & growth is expected to pick up substantially in the coming quarters), a cash rich & well managed IT company like INFY may be a "Bright Spot" in the days ahead, both for itself & its share holders.

As par BG metrics of quick TF model, median valuation of INFY is around 2200 by considering its current TTM EPS of around 107. If we assume projected FWD EPS of around 120 & 132, its median value may be around 2300 & 2400 (FY:16-17).

SCRIP	EPS(TTM)	BV(Act)	P/E(AVG)	LONG TERM	SHORT TERM	MEDIAN VALUE	200-DEMA	10-DEMA
INFY	107.89	387.74	21.2	2151.55	2217.21	2184.38	2023.88	2149.29

INFY

119.72

465.3

21.2

2266.44

2335.60

2301.02

2023.88

2149.29

INFY

131.7

558.3

21.2

2377.13

2449.67

2413.40

2023.88

2149.29