Tuesday 7 April 2015

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M): Battling for 3-rd position (auto sector) ?










Technically, M&M (CMP:1243) has to sustain over 1250-1260 zone for immediate target of around 1310. Its short term target should be 1375 zone and in the mid to long term, it could go to 1430-1475 & 1525 area (for all these mid to long term targets to happen, it should give consecutive closing above 1280 area).

On the flip side, 1190 should be a good support & below that 1153-1143 zone should offer positional support as of now. Break & sustain below 1143, may also invite 1102 area (low probability as of now). In fact, after the recent spate of corrections & side ways movement, it has took support of 1153 zone last week.

Better sales figure of its South Korean Subsidiary, helped to spur it yesterday in our market. Over the last few months, M&M seems to be out paced by Honda in the 3-rd slot (after Maruti & Hyundai) for the lack of better car model portfolios for the masses. Recent petro deregulation also decreased the effective price & maintenance differential between petrol & diesel cars. Thus, people are now preferring petrol cars than diesel ones.

Going ahead, M&M may be very active in introducing new model variants acceptable for masses & it continuously upgrading various technical parameters of its existing models, specially XYLO & Quanto.

M&M is also very confident to regain its lost position on the turn around of economic growth and changing demographics of our country (specially urban & semi-urban India). Young population, with more disposable income in hand & expected softening of car loan interest in the coming days, along with a slew of state elections, demand of SUV (s) may be increased quite a lot.

As par BG metrics of quick techno/funda model, median valuation of M&M is around 1430 under the current market conditions.


SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act)  P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA
M&M 59.05 270.6 28.54 1431.52 1424.12 1427.82 1215.97 1203.43

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