Technically, ICICI Bank (CMP: 302) has immediate support of around 295 & below that 290 may offer a strong positional support. Sustain below 290, it could target 282-265-247-229 zone in the near term (under worst case scenerio).
On the upside, it has to sustain above 303-308-312 zones for immediate target of 317-325-328 area. Consecutive closing above 328, ICICI Bank could scale 340-362 in the short to mid term. Sustain above 362, it may target 393-410 & 530 zones in the long term (FY:16-18, under Bull market scenerio).
Bottom Line:Cyclical Trading Levels
265-282-290-295-303-308-312-317-328-340-348-362-393-403-410
Although result of ICICI Bank (published yesterday during mkt hours) is more or less in line with street estimates, it lags behind on asset quality (NPA).
Going ahead, FY-15 may be the peak of NPA addition & in the coming quarters, we could see a real down trend in this issue in the backdrop of expected revival in our economy and pick up in corporate loan demands. Also, there is a huge possibility of its de-leveraging (by listing Insurance & Broking arms separately).
As par BG metrics of quick TF model, median valuation of ICICI Bank is around 400 as par current consolidated TTM EPS of 21.17. If we assume projected FWD EPS of around 26 & 32, median value may be around 442 & 490 (FY:16-17).
| SCRIP | EPS(TTM) | BV(Act) | P/E(AVG) | LONG TERM | SHORT TERM | MEDIAN VALUE | 200-DEMA | 10-DEMA |
| ICICIBANK | 21.17 | 131.83 | 23.88 | 400.36 | 397.18 | 398.77 | 317.06 | 312.04 |
| ICICIBANK | 25.96 | 143.7 | 23.88 | 443.34 | 439.82 | 441.58 | 317.06 | 312.04 |
| ICICIBANK | 31.95 | 158.1 | 23.88 | 491.84 | 487.93 | 489.88 | 317.06 | 312.04 |
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