Nifty Fut (NSE-April): Will it hit 9200 or 8200 first ?

Looking at the chart, probability of hitting first 9200 is more. In fact, it could go to 9250-9350 & 9700 zone by next month, if earnings season won't disappoint us too much & tone of RBI is some what dovish, given that the FED will be in no hurry to be on hawkish side (at least late 2015-16) and there is no dearth of global liquidity.

For Nifty Fut (NF; LTP: 8636), immediate positional support zone should be 8570 & below that 8523 zone. Consecutive closing below 8523, NF may fall to 8414-8325 zone. Only sustain below 8300 zone, it could crash to 8200-8150 zone (low probability as of now).

On the up side, sustain above 8660-8700 zone, NF may gain more strength and consecutive closing above 8760-8800 zone, it could go to 9000-9200 zone by early this month itself.

On the domestic front, all eyes will be on RBI tomorrow. This time RBI may twinkle CRR/SLR rate in order to transmit lower cost of funds to banks for pass on lower interest rate to its borrowers (as previous 0.50% repo rate cut didn't translate actual rate cut by banks). Repo rate cut to the tune of another 0.75-1.00% may happen gradually over the years (FY:15-16), possibly started around next policy meet (June'15).

In India, though real rate of interest is now around 2% (Repo 7.5% - Avg. CPI 5.5%), actually it may be around 7% considering average rate of bank interest on loans to various categories of borrowers
(Bank Intt Rate 12.5% - Avg. CPI 5.5%). Thus, this high cost of borrowings is not feasible for Indian Industry to grow & RBI may revisit its some what hawkish stance going ahead. But, for this, inflation factor may also need to be structurally tackled by the Govt.

Trading Levels of Nifty Fut (NSE-APR):

		Gap Up/Dw	(Indicative)
SGX NIFTY	8670	34
				NF-APR	LTP	8636
	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	SLR
Strong >	8660		8700-8745	8762-8800*	8840-8862	<8640
Weak <	8640		8604-8589	8571-8523*	8498-8446	>8660
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	SLR
Strong >	8660		8745	8800*	8862-9012	<8640
Weak <	8640		8589	8523*	8446-8414	>8660