Looking at the Chart, technically Crude Oil (CMP:57.39) has to sustain above 58.50- 59.50 area for further up move to 65-70 & 75-80 zone in the short to mid term.
On the flip side, consecutive closing below 54, it may again fall to 49.50 & 44 zone in the near term.
Fragile pause of bombings by Saudi Arabia led coalition on Yemen rebels & possibility of more stimulus by China (to prevent further slow down its economy) along with continuing decrease of Baker Huges Oil Rig Counts are drivers of the Crude Oil at this moment.
But continuing increase of supply/demand mismatch may be also a head wind in the near term.
Going ahead, cyclical Geo-Political tensions, expected pick up of demands from China & India (as industrial activity and investment cycle will revive ) may be some of the drivers for Crude Oil. Also, it may be presumed that worst is over for EU/US/Japan & other advance economics and subsequently as growths pick up, demand of Crude Oil might grow in a steady way.
But, increasing over supply may be the main reason to keep the Crude Oil price in a range, preferably above 60-65 $, where most of the oil producers will make it break even & invest. We also need investments in Oil & Gas sector to keep our world GDP clock running.
In short, without OPEC intervention, under free market economy, Crude Oil range may be between 40-60-80 in the coming days (under worst to very good conditions for Crude Oil).
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