Adani Ports: Has To Sustsian Abv 230-240 Zone For Further Strength

For APSEZ, consecutive closing above 235-240 area, 

it may rally further towards 280-300 zone;

Otherwise it will be weak and sustain below 215-211 zone,

may again fall to 195-170 area

Continued global & India slowdown may hurt cargo movements and earnings;

Q3FY16 result indicated that the much expected conversion 

from bulk-dry cargo to liquid and container cargo is not happening

With TTM EPS at 12.61, the more reasonable PE may be around 15 

instead of 20 in the current and expected overall weak trade scenario

(Risk: Fast changing political scenario;

probable absence of NAMO wave in 2019 election;

and huge consolidated debt on the Adani group) 

Trading Idea:

CMP: 228

Sell either below 230 or on rise around 235-240;

TGT: 211*-195-170-150 (1-3M)

TSL> 246

Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 246 for any reason, APSEZ may further rally up to 270*-280-290* & 300-320*-375 zone in the short to long term (alternative bullish case scenario for the current trading level).

As par BG metrics & current market scenario:

(based on consolidated TTM & projected FWD EPS)

Current median valuation of APSEZ may be around: 215 (FY:15-16/TTM)

Projected fair valuations might be around: 225-240 (FY:17-18/FWD)

 

SCRIP	EPS(TTM)	BV(Act)	P/E(AVG)	Low	High	Median	200-DEMA	10-DEMA
ADANIPORTS	12.61	51.98	15	225.59	198.42	212.00	269.05	208.14

ADANIPORTS

12.75

62.4

15

226.84

199.52

213.18

269.05

208.14

 

ADANIPORTS

14.05

74.95

15

238.12

209.44

223.78

269.05

208.14

 

ADANIPORTS

16.25

89.9

15

256.09

225.24

240.67

269.05

208.14

Analytical Charts: