Hero Motors: Will Be "Hero" By Only Sustaining Abv 2870-2910

For HM, consecutive closing above 2870-2910 zone, 
target may be around 3300-3500;

Otherwise, it will be weak and below 2800, 
can fall towards 2725-2450 area

Staggered nature of 7-PC and tepid consumer mood may 

affect highly expected incremental sales growth, despite hopes of rural push

(Any possibility of bad monsoon this year will also affect sentiment)

Trading Idea:

CMP: 2806

Sell either below 2800 Or on rise around 2870-2910;

TGT: 2725*-2625-2570-2470*-2450 (1-3M)

TSL> 2940

Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 2940 for any reason, HM may further rally up to 3020-3110-3180-3270 & 3500 zone in the short to long term (alternative bullish case scenario)

As par BG metrics & current market scenario:

(based on TTM & projected FWD EPS with avg PE at 20)

Current median valuation of HM may be around: 2700 (FY:15/TTM)

Projected fair valuations might be around: 2860-3075-3315 (FY:16-18/FWD)

SCRIP	EPS(TTM)	BV(Act)	P/E(AVG)	Low	High	Median	200-DEMA	10-DEMA
HEROMOTOCO	139.95	327.58	20	2686.53	2709.97	2698.25	2578.58	2623.77

HEROMOTOCO

157.15

370.25

20

2846.84

2871.67

2859.25

2578.58

2623.77

HEROMOTOCO

180.75

418.45

20

3053.12

3079.76

3066.44

2578.58

2623.77

HEROMOTOCO

210.85

475.85

20

3297.56

3326.33

3311.94

2578.58

2623.77

Analytical Charts: