Technically, Axis Bank has to sustain above 450-470 zone for more rally up to 490-535 zone; otherwise it may face selling pressure and sustain below 437-427 may again fall up to 411-374 area in the near term.
Trading Idea: Axis Bank
CMP: 444
Either sell below 450-460 or in rise around 470-490;
TGT1: 427-411*-405-387-374-365* (1-3/6M)
TGT2: 348-325*-310-290*-275-265 (12M)
TSL>500
Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 500 for any reason, Axis Bank may further rally up to 520-535* & 570-625*-655 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level).
Although there may be no disclosure issue about Q4FY16 asset quality issues this time (stressed assets provisions-RBI- AQR), some analysts are expecting incremental higher provision and consequent higher credit costs by around 20-25%.
For Axis Bank:
Q3FY16 TTM EPS: 34.49
Projected FWD EPS: 34.65-40.50-46.75 (FY:16-18)
Average PE: 15
As par BG metrics & current market scenario:
Present median valuation may be around: 480 (Q4FY16/TTM)
Projected fair valuations might be around: 481-520-560 (FY:16-18/FWD)
| SCRIP | EPS(TTM) | BV(Act) | P/E(AVG) | Low | High | Median | 200-DEMA | 10-DEMA |
| AXISBANK | 34.49 | 187.54 | 15 | 486.93 | 471.92 | 479.43 | 458.3 | 430.48 |
| AXISBANK | 34.65 | 217.75 | 15 | 488.06 | 473.01 | 480.54 | 458.3 | 430.48 |
| AXISBANK | 40.5 | 252.55 | 15 | 527.65 | 511.39 | 519.52 | 458.3 | 430.48 |
| AXISBANK | 46.75 | 295.75 | 15 | 566.91 | 549.43 | 558.17 | 458.3 | 430.48 |
Analytical Charts:
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