Trading Idea: BOB
CMP: 155
Sell around 165-171-182;
TGT: 149*-141-134-125-118*-109-102*-85 (1-3/6M)
TSL> 185
Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 182 for any reason BOB may further rally up to 193-205* & 216-230 and 250 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario).
Although Q4FY16 EBITDA of BOB increased by 50.95% (QOQ) and declined by 4.49% (YOY), sequentially higher EBITDA was supported by other income (treasury/trading & one time FX gain).
For BOB : Q4FY16 (Consolidated)
Q4FY16 EPS: -14.09 lagged by estimates of 1.27 by 1205% !!. (QOQ: -14.59; YOY: 2.72)
Q4FY16 TTM EPS: -23.20
Q4FY16 OPERATING EPS: 9.82 (WITHOUT ANY PROVISIONS)
Q4FY16 TTM OPERATING EPS: 37.24 (FY:16/Actual)
Projected OPERATING EPS: 35.15-33.54-32 (FY:17-19/Estimated)
Average PE: 3 (Till the market got a clear picture about quantum of NPA mess & stressed assets)
As par BG metrics & current market parameters: (Based on operating EPS)
Present median valuation may be around: 132 (FY:16/TTM)
Projected fair valuation may be around: 128-125-120 (FY:17-19/TTM)
FY16 BVPS: 132.74
AVERAGE P/BV: 1.03
FAIR VALUE: 137
EXPECTED RANGE : 165-99 (x1.75-0.75); MEDIAN RANGE: 132
| BANKBARODA | EPS(TTM) | BV(Act) | P/E(AVG) | Low | High | Median | 200-DEMA | 10-DEMA |
| Q4FY16/TTM | 37.24 | 132.74 | 3 | 131.49 | 131.66 | 131.58 | 154.76 | 155.17 |
| FY17/FWD | 35.15 | 136.4 | 3 | 127.75 | 127.92 | 127.83 | 154.76 | 155.17 |
| FY18/FWD | 33.54 | 140.25 | 3 | 124.79 | 124.95 | 124.87 | 154.76 | 155.17 |
| FY19/FWD | 32 | 144.05 | 3 | 121.89 | 122.05 | 121.97 | 154.76 | 155.17 |
Analytical Charts:
Q4FY16 Result Summary:
|
Q4FY16 | Q3FY16 | Q2FY16 | Q1FY16 | Q4FY15 | YOY(%) | QOQ *%) | TTM(%) | EST | DEV(%) | |
| Interest Earned | 11,014.38 | 10,614.04 | 11,156.36 | 11,276.49 | 10,761.93 | 2.35 | 3.77 | -1.37 | |||
| (a) Int. /Disc. on Adv/Bills | 6,882.34 | 7,169.25 | 7,711.93 | 8,032.71 | 7,539.62 | -8.72 | -4.00 | -4.91 | |||
| (b) Income on Investment | 2,689.35 | 2,685.87 | 2,739.35 | 2,650.64 | 2,628.76 | 2.30 | 0.13 | 2.17 | |||
| (c) Int. on balances With RBI | 365.31 | 353.35 | 291.21 | 296.05 | 286.63 | 27.45 | 3.38 | 23.28 | |||
| (d) Others | 1,077.38 | 405.57 | 413.87 | 297.09 | 306.92 | 251.03 | 165.65 | 32.14 | |||
| Other Income | 1,774.68 | 1,112.91 | 1,144.04 | 967.23 | 1,295.46 | 36.99 | 59.46 | -14.09 | |||
| TOTAL INCOME | 12,789.06 | 11,726.95 | 12,300.40 | 12,243.72 | 12,057.39 | 6.07 | 9.06 | -2.74 | |||
| EXPENDITURE | |||||||||||
| Interest Expended | 7,683.97 | 7,908.70 | 7,911.89 | 7,816.87 | 7,590.26 | 1.23 | -2.84 | 4.20 | |||
| Employees Cost | 1,434.17 | 1,154.79 | 1,043.98 | 1,345.08 | 928.24 | 54.50 | 24.19 | 24.41 | |||
| Other Expenses | 1,098.46 | 959.32 | 1,007.51 | 879.82 | 845.36 | 29.94 | 14.50 | 13.48 | |||
| TOTAL EXPENSES | 10,216.60 | 10,022.81 | 9,963.38 | 10,041.77 | 9,363.86 | 9.11 | 1.93 | 7.04 | |||
| EBITDA | 2,572.46 | 1,704.14 | 2,337.02 | 2,201.95 | 2,693.53 | -4.49 | 50.95 | -36.73 | |||
| EBITDA(%) | 20.11 | 14.53 | 19.00 | 17.98 | 22.34 | -9.96 | 38.42 | -34.95 | |||
| ONE TIME EXCEPTIONAL INCOME | 302.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| OPERATING PROFIT(OP) | 2,269.49 | 1,704.14 | 2,337.02 | 2,201.95 | 2,693.53 | -15.74 | 33.18 | -36.73 | |||
| OPM(%) | 17.75 | 14.53 | 19.00 | 17.98 | 22.34 | -20.56 | 22.12 | -34.95 | |||
| Depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| EBITA | 2,572.46 | 1,704.14 | 2,337.02 | 2,201.95 | 2,693.53 | -4.49 | 50.95 | -36.73 | |||
| Provisions And Contingencies | 5,293.96 | 6,164.55 | 1,891.70 | 599.74 | 1,817.50 | 191.28 | -14.12 | 239.18 | |||
| EXCEPTIONAL PROVISIONS | 1,563.70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| TOTAL PROVISIONS | 6,857.66 | 6,164.55 | 1,891.70 | 599.74 | 1,817.50 | 277.31 | 11.24 | 239.18 | |||
| PBT | -4,285.20 | -4,460.41 | 445.32 | 1,602.21 | 876.03 | -589.16 | -3.93 | -609.16 | |||
| PBT(%) | -33.51 | -38.04 | 3.62 | 13.09 | 7.27 | -561.18 | -11.91 | -623.51 | |||
| Tax | -1,055.06 | -1,118.37 | 320.84 | 550.06 | 277.68 | -479.96 | -5.66 | -502.75 | |||
| PAT | -3,230.14 | -3,342.04 | 124.48 | 1,052.15 | 598.35 | -639.84 | -3.35 | -658.54 | 294.50 | -1196.82 | |
| PAT(%) | -25.26 | -28.50 | 1.01 | 8.59 | 4.96 | -608.96 | -11.38 | -674.28 | |||
| Prior Year Adjustments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| Extra Ordinary Items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| Net Profit/(Loss) For the Period | -3,255.40 | -3,370.54 | 125.49 | 1,060.74 | 603.31 | -639.59 | -3.42 | -658.67 | |||
| Equity Share Capital | 462.09 | 462.09 | 462.09 | 443.56 | 443.56 | 4.18 | 0.00 | 4.18 | |||
| EPS | -14.09 | -14.59 | 0.54 | 4.78 | 2.72 | -617.95 | -3.42 | -636.27 | 1.27 | -1205.40 | |
| OPERATING EPS | 9.82 | 7.38 | 10.11 | 9.93 | 12.15 | -19.12 | 33.18 | -39.27 | |||
| TTM EPS(OPERATING) | 37.24 | 39.56 | 0.00 | ||||||||
| AVG PE | 3 | 3 | 0.00 | ||||||||
| MEDIAN VALUATION(OPERATING) | 111.73 | 118.69 | 0.00 | ||||||||
| Diluted EPS | -14.02 | -14.5 | 0.56 | 4.76 | 2.79 | -602.51 | -3.31 | -619.71 | |||
| TTM EPS(DILUTED) | -23.20 | -6.39 | 0.00 | ||||||||
| AVERGE PE | 10 | 10 | 0.00 | ||||||||
| MEDIAN VALUATION | -232.00 | -63.90 | 0.00 | ||||||||
| NPA ANALYSIS | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| GROSS ADVANCES | 405517.00 | 402073.00 | 426568.00 | 418226.00 | 437280.00 | -7.26 | 0.86 | -8.05 | |||
| Gross NPA | 40,521.04 | 38,934.11 | 23,710.33 | 17,273.95 | 16,261.45 | 149.18 | 4.08 | 139.43 | |||
| Net NPA | 19,406.46 | 21,806.16 | 12,797.82 | 8,470.02 | 8,069.49 | 140.49 | -11.00 | 170.23 | |||
| CUMULATIVE PROVISIONS(ADJ) | 21,114.58 | 17,127.95 | 10,912.51 | 8,803.93 | 8,191.96 | 157.75 | 23.28 | 109.08 | |||
| RESTRUCTURED STD ASSETS | 13,735.00 | 17,135.00 | 22,930.00 | 25,541.00 | 25,906.00 | -46.98 | -19.84 | -33.86 | |||
| GROSS NPL(WATCHLIST) | 54,256.04 | 56,069.11 | 46,640.33 | 42,814.95 | 42,167.45 | 28.67 | -3.23 | 32.97 | |||
| NET NPL | 33,141.46 | 38,941.16 | 35,727.82 | 34,011.02 | 33,975.49 | -2.45 | -14.89 | 14.62 | |||
| GROSS NPA(%) | 9.99 | 9.68 | 5.56 | 4.13 | 3.72 | 168.70 | 3.19 | 160.39 | |||
| NET NPA(%) | 4.79 | 5.42 | 3.00 | 2.03 | 1.85 | 159.33 | -11.76 | 193.89 | |||
| GROSS NPL(%) | 13.38 | 13.95 | 10.93 | 10.24 | 9.64 | 38.75 | -4.06 | 44.61 | |||
| NET NPL(%) | 8.17 | 9.69 | 8.38 | 8.13 | 7.77 | 5.19 | -15.62 | 24.65 | |||
| CUMULATIVE ADDITIONS | 5,932.00 | 15,785.00 | 6,962.30 | 1,907.86 | 8,515.34 | -30.34 | -62.42 | 85.37 | |||
| CUMULATIVE RECOVERY | 4,345.00 | 561.00 | 525.93 | 895.34 | 4,129.80 | 5.21 | 674.51 | -86.42 | |||
| FRESH ADDITIONS | 1,587.00 | 15,224.00 | 6,436.37 | 1,012.52 | 4,385.54 | -63.81 | -89.58 | 247.14 | |||
| ACTUAL RECOVERY | 1,434.00 | 311.00 | 334.37 | 300.21 | 1,491.81 | -3.88 | 361.09 | -79.15 | |||
| NIM(%) | 2.05 | 1.72 | 2.08 | 2.26 | 2.17 | -5.53 | 19.19 | -20.74 | |||
| NII | 3,330.41 | 2,705.34 | 3,244.47 | 3,459.62 | 3,171.67 | 5.00 | 23.11 | -14.70 | 3032.60 | 9.82 | |
| OTHER INCOME | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| CUMULATIVE FEE BASED INCOME | 681 | 559 | 587.95 | 519.36 | 630.04 | 8.09 | 21.82 | -11.28 | |||
| CUMULATIVE TRADING/TREASURY INCOME | 1094 | 554 | 556.11 | 447.87 | 665.4 | 64.41 | 97.47 | -16.74 | |||
| TOTAL | 1775 | 1113 | 1144.06 | 967.23 | 1295.44 | 37.02 | 59.48 | -14.08 |
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