TATAMOTORS: Need To Sustain Above 435-455 For Further Rally Despite Better Than Expected Q4FY16 Result Pushed By JLR

Trading Idea: TATAMOTORS

CMP: 421

Either sell around 440-450 OR 475-485;

TGT: 405*-385-375-360*-345-328-299-279-260*-240 (1-3/6M)

TSL> 460 OR  > 495

Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 495 for any reason, TM may further rally up to 515-535* and 560-595* & 615*-635 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario).

For TATAMOTORS (Consolidated):

Q4FY16 EPS of TM reported as 15.33 which beat consensus EPS of 10.60 by around 45% (QOQ: 10.41; YOY: 8.43).

Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 32.70 (FY:16/Actual)

Earlier street estimate was at 34.15 (lagged by around 4.25%).

Projected FWD EPS: 37.75-43.45-49.95 (FY:17-19/Estimates)

Last 5 QTRS average EPS : 7.66

Last 5 YLY average EPS: 38.30 

Average PE: 15

As par BG metrics & current market volatility:

Present median valuation may be around: 440 (FY:16/TTM)

Projected fair valuation might be around: 475-510-545 (FY:17-19/FWD)

 

TATAMOTORS	EPS	BV	P/E	Low	High	Median	200-DEMA	10-DEMA
Q4FY16/TTM	32.7	215.28	15	434.50	441.28	437.89	384.89	397
FY17/FWD	37.75	244.45	15	466.84	474.13	470.49	384.89	397
FY18/FWD	43.45	277.55	15	500.85	508.67	504.76	384.89	397
FY19/FWD	49.95	314.95	15	537.01	545.39	541.20	384.89	397

Analytical Charts: