Tuesday 3 May 2016

Yes Bank: 965-985 Zone May Be A Big Hurdle In The Days Ahead

Trading Idea: Yes Bank

CMP: 945

Either sell below 965-975 or on rise around 990-1010;

TGT: 924*-895-870-854-824*-793-770-748 (1-3/6M)

TSL> 1015

Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) for any reason, Yes Bank may further rally up to 1035*-1070-1110 & 1160-1230 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario).

Q4FY16 result of Yes Bank was slightly better than expected and Q4 Diluted EPS was reported as 16.38 against consensus of 16.06 (beat by 1.99%).

Q4FY16 PAT came as Rs.702.11 cr against estimate of 689 (beat by 1.90%).

Q4FY16 NII came as Rs.1241.44 against consensus of 1214 (beat by 2.26%).

But asset quality and provisions came higher at Rs.186.46 cr (YOY: +47.56%; QOQ: +26.04%).

For Yes Bank (Standalone)

Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 59.27 (FY:16/Actual)

Projected FED EPS: 71.05-85.25-102.35 (FY:17-19/Estimated)

Average PE: 15

Q4BVPS: 327.80

As par BG metrics and current market parameters:

Present median valuation may be around: 865 (FY:16/TTM)

Projected fair value: 950-1040-1140 (FY:17-19/FWD)

YESBANK EPS(TTM) BV(Act)  P/E(AVG) Low High Median  200-DEMA 10-DEMA OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
Q4FY16/TTM 59.27 327.8 15 828.22 898.99 863.61 771.55 909.05 947.9 957.6 941.5 944.95
FY17/FWD 71.05 442.75 15 906.80 984.29 945.54 771.55 909.05 947.9 957.6 941.5 944.95
FY18/FWD 85.25 597.55 15 993.29 1078.17 1035.73 771.55 909.05 947.9 957.6 941.5 944.95
FY19/FWD 102.35 806.95 15 1088.36 1181.36 1134.86 771.55 909.05 947.9 957.6 941.5 944.95


Analytical Charts:









Q4FY16 Result Highlights:


http://img1.moneycontrol.com/images/blank.gif
Yes Bank-Standalone
Q4FY16 Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q1FY16 Q4FY15 YOY(%) QOQ *%) EST DEV(%) TTM 4QA 4Q(%) PQ(%) Q1FY17E Q4FY17E
                               
Interest Earned 3,528.30 3,376.05 3,377.24 3,251.85 3,088.39 14.24 4.51     13533.44 3273.38 7.79 5.29 3714.81 3965.52
(a) Int. /Disc. on Adv/Bills 2,547.19 2,420.97 2,414.84 2,328.48 2,130.58 19.55 5.21     9711.48 2323.72 9.62 6.57 2714.62 2934.67
(b) Income on Investment 911.44 885.24 856.03 855.5 944.33 -3.48 2.96     3508.21 885.28 2.96 1.68 926.77 944.82
(c) Int. on balances With RBI 21.56 22.29 51.95 16.74 11.82 82.40 -3.28     112.54 25.70 -16.11 0.41 21.65 26.12
(d) Others 48.11 47.55 54.42 51.13 1.66 2798.19 1.18     201.21 38.69 24.35 241.69 164.39 412.73
Other Income 802.81 746.07 618.1 545.17 590.44 35.97 7.61     2712.15 624.95 28.46 15.02 923.39 1000.40
TOTAL INCOME 4,331.11 4,122.12 3,995.34 3,797.02 3,678.83 17.73 5.07     16245.59 3898.33 11.10 6.87 4628.58 4969.30
EXPENDITURE                   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Interest Expended 2,286.86 2,219.05 2,268.77 2,192.04 2,111.32 8.31 3.06     8966.72 2197.80 4.05 3.06 2356.89 2467.01
Employees Cost 352.84 342.64 312.78 288.54 261.86 34.74 2.98     1296.80 301.46 17.05 9.57 386.61 416.85
Other Expenses 465.94 410.8 394.65 408.17 368.15 26.56 13.42     1679.56 395.44 17.83 12.63 524.79 595.22
TOTAL EXPENSES 3,105.64 2,972.49 2,976.20 2,888.75 2,741.33 13.29 4.48     11943.08 2894.69 7.29 5.03 3261.85 3477.07
EBITDA 1,225.47 1,149.63 1,019.14 908.27 937.50 30.72 6.60     4302.51 1003.64 22.10 12.13 1374.08 1490.45
ONE TIME EXCEPTIONAL INCOME 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00     0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
OPERATING PROFIT(OP) 1,225.47 1,149.63 1,019.14 908.27 937.50 30.72 6.60     4302.51 1003.64 22.10 12.13 1374.08 1490.45
OPM(%) 28.29 27.89 25.51 23.92 25.48 11.03 1.45     105.61 25.70 10.09 4.77 29.64 30.60
Depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00     0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
EBITA 1,225.47 1,149.63 1,019.14 908.27 937.50 30.72 6.60     4302.51 1003.64 22.10 12.13 1374.08 1490.45
Provisions And Contingencies 186.46 147.94 103.94 97.96 126.36 47.56 26.04     536.30 119.05 56.62 31.52 245.23 269.13
 EXCEPTIONAL PROVISIONS 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00     0.00 900.00 100.00 33.33 900.00 -3600.00
TOTAL PROVISIONS 186.46 147.94 103.94 97.96 126.36 47.56 26.04     536.30 119.05 56.62 31.52 245.23 269.13
PBT 1,039.01 1,001.69 915.20 810.31 811.14 28.09 3.73     3766.21 884.59 17.46 9.40 1136.70 1217.26
Tax 336.9 325.95 304.79 259.11 260.15 29.50 3.36     1226.75 287.50 17.18 9.31 368.25 394.52
PAT 702.11 675.74 610.41 551.20 550.99 27.43 3.90 689.00 1.90 2539.46 597.09 17.59 9.45 768.46 822.77
Net Profit/(Loss) For the Period 702.11 675.74 610.41 551.20 550.99 27.43 3.90     2539.46 597.09 17.59 9.45 768.46 822.77
Equity Share Capital 420.53 419.5 418.77 418.11 417.74 0.67 0.25     1676.91 418.53 0.48 0.30 421.78 423.50
EPS 16.70 16.11 14.58 13.18 13.19 26.58 3.65 16.38 1.90 60.56 14.26 17.05 9.11 18.22 19.46
OPERATING EPS 5.83 5.48 4.87 4.34 4.49 29.85 6.34     20.52 4.80 21.54 11.78 6.51 7.05
Basic EPS 16.71 16.14 14.59 13.19 13.19 26.69 3.53     60.63 14.28 17.04 9.08 18.23 19.46
Diluted EPS 16.38 15.79 14.25 12.85 12.87 27.27 3.74 16.06 1.99 59.27 13.94 17.50 9.35 17.91 19.16
AVERGE PE                   15.00 TTM EPS Q1FY17 64.33  
FAIR VALUE                   889.05       964.98  
Q1FY17 MEDIAN FAIR VALUE 927.01                            
NPA Ratios :                   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gross NPA 748.98 558.57 491.35 368.3 313.4 138.99 34.09     2167.20 432.91 73.01 47.28 1103.12 1251.66
GROSS SLIPPAGE 190.41 67.22 123.05 54.90 138.47 37.51 183.26     435.58 95.91 98.53 97.06 375.22 468.26
LESS: CUMULATIVE PROVISIONS 464.51 371.41 332.72 261.60 225.68 105.83 25.07     1430.24 297.85 55.95 35.83 630.92 724.68
 Net NPA 284.47 187.16 158.63 106.70 87.72 224.29 51.99     736.96 135.05 110.64 72.90 491.85 528.87
ADD:NET CDR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00     0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TOTAL NPL 284.47 187.16 158.63 106.70 87.72 224.29 51.99     736.96 135.05 110.64 72.90 491.85 528.87
ADVANCES 98,209.93 84,396.20 80,015.10 79,665.60 75,549.82 29.99 16.37     342286.83 79906.68 22.91 15.59 113521.48 129738.51
NPL(%) 0.29 0.22 0.20 0.13 0.12 149.47 30.61     0.84 0.17 72.91 46.97 0.43 0.48
Gross NPA(%) 0.76 0.66 0.61 0.46 0.41 83.84 15.23     0.76 0.54 41.68 25.96 0.96 1.10
 Net NPA(%) 0.29 2.28 1.65 1.58 1.61 -82.01 -87.30     0.29 1.78 -83.73 -63.84 0.10 -2.77
NII 1,241.44 1,157.00 1,108.47 1,059.81 977.07 27.06 7.30 1214.00 2.26 4566.72 1075.59 15.42 9.83 1363.44 1498.40
NIM(%) 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 6.25 0.00     3.35 3.30 3.03 1.53 3.45 3.50
PBT(%) 23.99 24.30 22.91 21.34 22.05 8.80 -1.28     23.13 22.65 5.92 2.28 24.54 24.71
NP(%) 16.21 16.39 15.28 14.52 14.98 8.24 -1.11     15.60 15.29 6.01 2.32 16.59 16.71

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