Tuesday, 21 June 2016

Bank Nifty Fut(June): 17300-17100 Zone Is Vital For Stability After "Rexit" Amid Confusion Of "Brexit/Bremain"

BNF: 17715 (LTP)

Sell around 17800-18000* OR on rise around 18200-18400;

TGT: 17240*-17000-16800-16600-16300*-16000-15800-15700*-15500-15200*-14900-14600 (5-15 days)

TSL> 18100 OR > 18500


Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 18500 for any reason, BNF may further rally up to 18600*-19200-19600 in the near term (alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level).

After yesterday's institution supported market following "Rexit", we may see real concern and price action in the coming days.

Also, going by the price action of global risk assets and recent rally of GBPUSD (CMP:1.4650), "Beremain" may be already priced in to a great extent. 

SPF yesterday was not able to sustain above 2100 zone and that may be an indication that market is quite anxious about "Brexit" referendum to be scheduled on 23-rd June.

After this "Brexit" drama, all eyes will be shifted to Fed, US economy and China again and today's Yellen testimony may provide some cues about thinking of Fed about the "strength" of the US economy. 

In the event of "Beremain", concern of Fed about disorderly market for "Brexit" will reduce and implied rate hike probability in Sep'16 may increase quite dramatically; although chances of any Fed hike just before US election is quite low, but market may also focus on inherent strength of US economy and next US president & any drastic change in Fed's stance going ahead.

Analytical Charts:








 

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