Nifty Moves On After "Rexit" Jolt Amid Hopes Of "Bremain"/ Aug Rate Cut By RBI, Smiling Rain God On Maharashtra & Some Relaxation of FDI Norms

Nifty Fut(June) closed at around 8251 after opening gap down/low around 8106 and high of 8261.

Looking at the chart, NF has to sustain over 8280-8335* zone for immediate target of 8375-8415 & 8475-8515 area.

On the downside, inability to sustain over 8280 zone, there may be some selling pressure and sustain below 8170 area, NF may again fall towards 8105-8060* and 8000-7900 zone.

Today, global market opened in a positive tone after last Friday follow up action for more implied probability of "Bremain" (i.e. more probability of UK to be "remain" in EU) after horror killing of the British MP. There is also a talk of gathering of more & more online petition signatures in favour of a Parliament debate & vote for this "Brexit" drama, which may force the UK authority to cancel the public referendum (although its may be too late now).

  

Thus there is some rally in "risk assets" & commodity currency and metals rallied in our market also.

Today, RBI and Institutions also gave good buying support to our market and INR as expected & market covered some short from the opening low itself. Also, after "Rexit", rate cut probability by the RBI in the forthcoming policy meet in Aug'16 increased and market is also looking some sort of favourable policy change regarding "AQR". Thus Bank Nifty/PSBS also rallied to some extent.

Today, much awaited monsoon hit the drought affected Maharashtra/Marathwada region, which also helped our market to some extent as there was some concern regarding the actual quantum & distribution of the rain in that region.

Today, Govt passed some much awaited relaxation on FDI in its cabinet meet in a host of sectors like civil aviation, single branded retail, defence and pharma (by inviting investments through automatic route), which also supported the overall market sentiment. 

Looking ahead, selection of new RBI Gov, Brexit fears/Bremain hopes, Yellen speech tomorrow will drive the market. Though, it seems that "Rexit" is now a no event, going by the today's market price action, generally market will react after 2-3 days when institution support ends for such unusual market scenario.

So, trading/price action for the next few days will be more important and as such we should keep more reliance on the technical levels of NF as mentioned above.