DLF: 135-145 May Be A Good Hurdle Despite DT Cinema Deals & Expected Stake Sale In DCCDL; Current PE Of Around 43 May Be Quite Expensive

Trading Idea: DLF

CMP: 133

Either sell around 135-145 OR on rise around 165-175;

TGT: 125*-114-109*-105-93*-85-70*-60 (1-3/6M)

TSL> 148 OR > 180

Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 148-152 zone DLF may further rally up to 165-175 area, which is again a strong supply zone where fresh sales may be again initiated. Further consecutive closing (3 days) above 180, DLF may further rally up to 190-205* and 220-233* &  245*-270 in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario).

Despite expected stake sale in DCCDL, turnaround of RE market is vital for DLF (specially in the NCR) for a positive cash flow to cover its debt (around Rs.22000 cr) servicing.

For DLF (Consolidated basis):

Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 3.08 (FY:16/Actual)

Projected FWD EPS: 3.45-3.85-4.30 (FY:17-19/Estimated; if there is significant turnaround in RE market)

Average PE: 35

Current BVPS: 153.44

Average P/B: 0.75

Fair Value: 115

As par BG metrics and current market volatility:

Present median valuation may be around: 115 (FY:16/TTM)

Projected fair value might be around: 121-128-136 (FY:17-19/FWD)

 

DLF	EPS	BV	P/E	Low	High	Median	200-DEMA	10-DEMA
Q4FY16/TTM	3.08	153.44	35	112.51	117.02	114.77	117.43	127.03
FY17/FWD	3.45	155.65	35	119.08	123.85	121.46	117.43	127.03
FY18/FWD	3.85	158.15	35	125.79	130.83	128.31	117.43	127.03
FY19/FWD	4.3	160.45	35	132.94	138.27	135.60	117.43	127.03

  Analytical Charts: