Nifty Fut (June) closed around 8226 after
making an opening high of 8287.
In today's trade, soon after opening, sellers creep in and most of the day there was visible selling pressure at every high except some stock specific counters, which bucked the overall trend and NF made a low of around 8200 for the day.
Time & price action suggests that immediate support for NF will be around 8190-8150 zone and sustain below that 8090-8000 & 7960 level may be on the card.
On the other side, NF need to sustain above 8275-8295 for any movement towards 8335-8350 & 8405 in the immediate term.
Bottom line: Unless & until NF closed consecutively above 8335-8405 zone, there will be selling pressure in the market for immediate target of 8000-7960.
The Asian session started today with RBNZ policy action (New Zealand central bank) and they are on hold (as expected), but with some hawkish stance with a positive global outlook). As a result, NZD soars against USD.
There was also some hawkish comment from a BOJ official and consequently Yen also jumped and Nikkei dropped. For the last few quarters, it seemed that Yen & Risk trade (Equity) has inverse co-relation.
In EU, despite fresh start of corporate bond buying and forthcoming LTRO (from 22-nd June), EUR did not fall much as expected and as at this point of time Draghi might be waiting for some months to see the past QQE action and Fed's actual stance with Brexit event in this month.
As probability of Fed will be on hold and there will be no real Brexit, ECB may have ample time to adjust its QQE policy over the next few months; in the event of Brexit and market capitulation, ECB has to act quickly.
But, market does not like any uncertainty and as Brexit fear looms out, investments from EU/UK market are moving to US and this may be one of the reason, S&P now hovering around life time high, despite risk of another recession there.
But JOLT jobs opening yesterday was not bad at all and its one of the favorite indicator of Fed which may pave the way for another "live" Fed meet in Sep'16 (just before US election).
Also, presidency of Trump may be a risk for the market, at least initially (Trump may advocate for more structural reform rather than QQE as par his recent comments, if elected).
SPF, now trading at 2110, came down from the resistance area of 2126 and only sustaining above that, it may scale the life time high of 2135 to 2145 area; otherwise it will fall to 2080-2060 zone in the immediate term.
Back to our market, there were some stock/sector specific actions:
1.INFY: Dropped around 4% after its COO warned about Q1FY17 guidance due to increased staff & US visa cost and revenue volatility.
2.TCS: Dropped by around 2% after TN Govt approved Employee Union in IT sector there as a result of a HC case. This may be a sector specific issue if other states also approve it in coming days. IT, as a block buster revenue & employment generating sector, so far enjoyed various benefits, like cheap land, infra and no employee unions from various states.
3. Infra stocks gained some traction as the FM reviewed the progress of operationalising of NIIF.
4. Kesoram Industries: Surged today by around 15% after CARE upgraded its debt rating.
5.DRL: Dropped by 2% after US Consumer Product Safety Commission charged it with some rules for child safety on some of its products package.
6. Metal stocks rise on the back of better demand for Copper from China.
7.BPCL gained by around 2.40% after RBI raised its FII investment limit.
6. PSBS gained to some extent across the board after prospect of easing for AQR norms by RBI.
7. Tea stocks rallied on hopes of better tea prices.
In the near term, Rexit (Rajan's exit from RBI) & Brexit confusion may be some of the events that can trigger more volatility in the market.
In today's trade, soon after opening, sellers creep in and most of the day there was visible selling pressure at every high except some stock specific counters, which bucked the overall trend and NF made a low of around 8200 for the day.
Time & price action suggests that immediate support for NF will be around 8190-8150 zone and sustain below that 8090-8000 & 7960 level may be on the card.
On the other side, NF need to sustain above 8275-8295 for any movement towards 8335-8350 & 8405 in the immediate term.
Bottom line: Unless & until NF closed consecutively above 8335-8405 zone, there will be selling pressure in the market for immediate target of 8000-7960.
The Asian session started today with RBNZ policy action (New Zealand central bank) and they are on hold (as expected), but with some hawkish stance with a positive global outlook). As a result, NZD soars against USD.
There was also some hawkish comment from a BOJ official and consequently Yen also jumped and Nikkei dropped. For the last few quarters, it seemed that Yen & Risk trade (Equity) has inverse co-relation.
In EU, despite fresh start of corporate bond buying and forthcoming LTRO (from 22-nd June), EUR did not fall much as expected and as at this point of time Draghi might be waiting for some months to see the past QQE action and Fed's actual stance with Brexit event in this month.
As probability of Fed will be on hold and there will be no real Brexit, ECB may have ample time to adjust its QQE policy over the next few months; in the event of Brexit and market capitulation, ECB has to act quickly.
But, market does not like any uncertainty and as Brexit fear looms out, investments from EU/UK market are moving to US and this may be one of the reason, S&P now hovering around life time high, despite risk of another recession there.
But JOLT jobs opening yesterday was not bad at all and its one of the favorite indicator of Fed which may pave the way for another "live" Fed meet in Sep'16 (just before US election).
Also, presidency of Trump may be a risk for the market, at least initially (Trump may advocate for more structural reform rather than QQE as par his recent comments, if elected).
SPF, now trading at 2110, came down from the resistance area of 2126 and only sustaining above that, it may scale the life time high of 2135 to 2145 area; otherwise it will fall to 2080-2060 zone in the immediate term.
Back to our market, there were some stock/sector specific actions:
1.INFY: Dropped around 4% after its COO warned about Q1FY17 guidance due to increased staff & US visa cost and revenue volatility.
2.TCS: Dropped by around 2% after TN Govt approved Employee Union in IT sector there as a result of a HC case. This may be a sector specific issue if other states also approve it in coming days. IT, as a block buster revenue & employment generating sector, so far enjoyed various benefits, like cheap land, infra and no employee unions from various states.
3. Infra stocks gained some traction as the FM reviewed the progress of operationalising of NIIF.
4. Kesoram Industries: Surged today by around 15% after CARE upgraded its debt rating.
5.DRL: Dropped by 2% after US Consumer Product Safety Commission charged it with some rules for child safety on some of its products package.
6. Metal stocks rise on the back of better demand for Copper from China.
7.BPCL gained by around 2.40% after RBI raised its FII investment limit.
6. PSBS gained to some extent across the board after prospect of easing for AQR norms by RBI.
7. Tea stocks rallied on hopes of better tea prices.
In the near term, Rexit (Rajan's exit from RBI) & Brexit confusion may be some of the events that can trigger more volatility in the market.
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