Nifty Fut (July) today
closed around 0.75% down at 8519 after making an opening high of
8588 (8888 was not a real trade, but may be an act of "fat
finger") and low of 8511.70.
Technical chart suggest
that sustaining below 8500-8475* zone, NF may fall towards 8405*-8315
and 8195-8125* & 8000-7920* area in the near term.
On the other side, for
any strength, NF need to trade above 8550 for an immediate
target of 8590-8615* and 8665*-8725 & 8785-8875* in the
short term.
Bottom line:
Immediate positional
range is 8405-8665 in NF and break
of these range may give us movements of another
200-600 points in either direction.
Today morning Asian session
started in a positive note after overnight close of US market
around life time high on the back of good corporate earnings and
some market speculation that BOJ is going to unleash a massive
package of JPY 20 tln.
Some of the market participants were also
convinced that BOJ may take an extreme step like crediting directly
to the consumers bank A/C to stimulate Japanese economy (i.e. so
called Helicopter Money).
But, today after EU session
opens, BOJ chief Kuroda virtually killed this "Helicopter Money"
concept in a radio interview with BBC (as par reports).
Now, at the time of this
writing, as par Reuters report, BBC denied this interview
terming it as "Old" in the month of June.
In any way, in the age of
ongoing "comedy" by different central banks, volatility may be
the central theme of the market and its a professional trader's
paradise.
From the overall jawboning
of the BOJ & other Japanese officials, including PM Abe, its
clear that they are somehow attempting to manage the huge
expectation of the coming stimulus by the market.
All eyes will be mow on the
ECB meeting and Draghi jawboning. Although, Draghi this time is
not expected to come with a "Bazooka", he may extend the time period
of the current QQE/LTRO and lower the eligibility criteria of
the EU bonds for purchase (as there is now severe "scarcity" of
eligible bonds in the EU market). Draghi is also expected to
through some lights on the Italian banking crisis & " sad incident of Brexit".
Indian market was cautious
today after some reports that Govt is now pushing the GST bill
for RS passage in the 1-st/2-nd week of Aug through "consensus"
and not by RS voting as expected earlier by the market.
As this
"consensus" is going on for the last decade, since GST was
introduced by the UPA/Cong Govt, market may be little nervous
this time amid growing political battles ("circus").
There is no dearth of
political issues these days and from the overall scenario, a
tough question may arise as "is BJP really serious to pass &
implement the GST before 2019 election" ? If yes, then why its
not going for a "joint session of parliament" to pass the bill
on the basis of NDA'a combined strength in the LS & RS instead of going to Cong repeatedly ?
On the Q1 earning side,
there is no great surprise versus street estimates till now and
some long unwinding may be also happening.
Banking stocks, specially
PSBS and some selected private banks are in pressure today after
Fitch noted that the current recapitalization plan of Rs.75000
cr by the Govt under "Indradhanush" plan is too little and
Indian banking system (PSBS) may require at least $90 bln versus $7 bln
(as par the Govt's commitments) to be able to stand on its own
feet and Basel-III compliant.
As par some reports, total
stressed assets (NPL) of the Indian banking system may reach
towards Rs.11-15000 lac cr from the present level of 6-8 lac cr
by FY:17-18 amid uneven economic recovery and high real rate of
interest in India.
Kotak bank was down today modestly
after it reported below/at par estimates asset quality and some
other parameters (Q1FY17 result).
Axis bank was down by almost
4% ahead of its Q1 result tomorrow.
Ashoke Leyland rallied today
modestly after it delivered above expected Q1 result.
Wockhardt slumped today in
late session from its day high after reports of US FDA EIR in
one of its plants.
ACC today rallied decently
after CCEA approved its merger & restructuring plan with
Ambuja Cement & Holcim India.
Article Courtesy: Frontiza.com
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