Nifty Fut (July) closed
today around 8387 after a very range bound trade all over the
day (O:8385; H: 8415; L: 8376).
But there was good action in
some selective mid/small caps.
Technically, looking
ahead, sustaining below 8370 zone, NF may fall towards
8320-8250 & 8150-8045 area in the short term.
For any strength, NF need
to sustain above 8415-8450 area for an immediate target of
8510-8560 & 8685-8785 zone.
As there is US holiday
today, overall global cues was muted amid Australia election deadlock
and some hawkish BOJ comments.
After some below estimated
construction data in UK, which is showing some type of
"contraction" there, EU market also suffered some "setback".
Today a prominent UK "Leave"
camp leader resigned apparently, in protest against "Real Brexit
Delay" and looking forward, there may be more political
uncertainty in UK, although FTSE is near life time high (as GBP
devalued significantly because of this Brexit scare).
PBOC also "assured" the
market that Chinese economic operation is "stable".
As of now, in the event of
any sets of "bad news/events" (like threat of Brexit), market is
expecting for more "QQE" from the global central bankers
(FED/BOJ/ECB/PBOC), who are the four major pillars of the global
economy and this combination ("jitters" and "QQE") is helping
the market to find a both a floor and a ceiling very quickly
(i.e. market is now highly volatile & short term in nature).
Indian market today got also
some support from the HSBC "upgrade", citing favourable domestic
factors and realistic expectations of earnings with least affected
by global jitters this year.
But there are some concerns
too like lack of private investments, number of stalled projects
& comparatively low capacity utilization with significant
stressed assets in the Indian Banking sector, specially, in the
PSBS.
Tomorrow, the NAMO Gov will
bring a new sets of ministers (cabinet reshuffle) and as par the
available reports, none of them belong to any "senior" category.
Lack of adequate number of "senior ministers" in important
ministry may be one of the weak point of this Gov and as a
result of that, previously we had seen some policy delays as all
the files of the "junior ministers" will have to pass through
the busy "PMO".
In the cabinet reshuffle
tomorrow, we may see greater emphasis on the new ministers,
keeping in mind the forthcoming UP state election.
Ultimately, at 8400 Nifty PE
is quite stretched around 23.33 (TTM EPS: 360) and most of the
"good news" (better monsoon, GST passage, good Q1FY17 earnings)
may be already "priced-in" to a great extent (as nifty rallied
by nearly 23% from the budget day low in barely 4 months).
Although, we had only 48 hrs
of "Brexit" jitters amid central bank influenced liquidity
driven rally, fundamental concern & political uncertainty in
UK/EU is not changed much in reality.
Apart from that, China is
steadily devaluing its currency (Yuan) towards 6.80 level (as
par previous reports) and this may be the real headwinds along
with Chinese debt bubbles in the days ahead as market is now too
much occupied with "Brexit".
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