Nifty Fut (July) closed
today at 8637, just below the day high of 8645 after making an
opening low of around 8531.
Technically, NF has to
sustain above 8665*-8685 zone for an immediate target of
8725*-8785 and 8825-8875* & 9050*-9205 in the short term.
On the flip side,
inability to sustain above 8665 zone, NF may face some selling
pressure and sustaining below 8605* area, may fall again
towards 8505-8475* and 8415-8370 & 8225-8105 territory in
the near term.
Today morning Asian session
started with muted outlook after G-20 reaffirmed global financial
stability and no currency wars or competitive devaluation. But
these are nothing new and global market not moved much.
After German IFO data released
today (EU session), global market rallied a bit as the data was
above expectation and may also undermine the fear of Brexit. It
also highlighted that German economy is doing well irrespective
of Brexit related uncertainty and may continue to do so, as fear
of Real Brexit is somehow receded for at least next two years.
Also, expectation of BOJ
stimulus on 29-th July helped to curb the rally of JPY to some
extent and subsequently "risk rally" is "on".
Indian market is continuing
its volatility amid some confusing news of GST passage in the
current monsoon session of Parliament. As par reports of last
Friday, GST bill was officially listed for discussion in RS this
week.
But, on Sunday, there was no
official confirmation. Now, as par the latest report, Govt will
take a final call on tabling of GST after tomorrow's state
FM(s)/GST Council meeting, whether it will table the bill in
this week or next week (Aug).
As par some reports, there
is not much advancement with Cong for GST passage, but Cong is
ready for discussion to keep the GST rate outside constitution.
From the price action of
Nifty, its clear that market is discounting the passage of GST
in this monsoon session and any disappointment in this regard
may result is massive selling pressure as at around 8650, Nifty
TTM PE is around 23.70, which is historically very cautious zone
also.
Today, after market hours,
there was another market reports that Govt will form Debt
management office by executive order and will set inflation
(CPI) target at 4% (+/- 2%). This means that CPI at around 5.50%
will be below RBI's tolerance level and we may see rate
cut/dovish RBI in the coming days after new RBI Gov take charge.
Today, IMD also reaffirmed
good distribution of monsoon although its just 1% above the LPA
till last week.
This may be one of the
reasons for significant rally in Bank Nifty, apart form the recent
recapitalization & some deleveraging news.
Overall, all eyes will be on
the official Govt announcement regarding GST tabling in RS
tomorrow---stay tuned !!
Article Courtesy: Frontiza.com
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