Nifty Fut (July) closed the
day at around 8553, up by 0.39% after news that Govt has listed
the GST bill for discussions in the RS for next week.
Though there are several
bills listed for passage including notes of Debt Recovery and
modified Land Bill, some experts are also apprehending that the
"most vital & prestigious" GST bill may be tabled only
towards the end of the current monsoon session after all the
other bills get passed and the Govt got enough confidence to
pass the GST either through "consensus" or by "voting".
But for
this, Govt has to also talk with the other smaller regional
parties including its allies apart from Cong.
Basically, Nifty closed the
week almost flat after some bouts of volatility amid confusion
over the actual package of BOJ stimulus, some geo-political
tensions (Turkey, France), supply glut in oil and passage of
GST, Q1 numbers (so far good but not great), distribution of
monsoon, higher trajectory of inflation in India, specially Food Inflation.
For the week ahead, NF
need to sustain above 8475 zone; otherwise it may fall towards
8405*-8365 & 8315-8225* and 8060-7920* area.
On the other side, sustaining
above 8500-8550 area, NF may rally up to 8585-8615* &
8665*-8725 and 8785-8875* area in the near term.
Post Brexit, Nifty rallied
almost 8.5% form the Brexit day low in tandem with similar movements
in the global market. Apart from the power of central banks
liquidity (QQE), Indian market also got support from the hopes
of GST passage, good monsoon & Q1 corporate numbers &
higher expectation of monetary stimulus/rate cuts from the RBI
in the coming days (at least 0.50% rate cuts in FY-17).
But despite decades of QQE,
consumption (demand) is not increasing proportionately with the
ever growing production and this demand supply mismatch may be
one of the reason of today's global deflationary trend in the
advanced economies.
Also, QQE may not be a permanent
solution for a geo-political event like "Real Brexit".
Today's
flash PMI data in UK during the Brexit period of uncertainty
came much below 50 (boom/bust line); although it may recover
towards 50 in the coming months because Article-50 may not be
invoked in the foreseeable future and the new UK PM may find
ways to renegotiate with the EU, there will be severe lack of
confidence on the "Real Street", which can't be treated with
QQE.
In the Indian market today,
Biocon surged to all time high amid very good Q1 numbers, new
biosimilars and future business/capex plan in Japan & EU.
Cairn & VEDL surged
quite significantly amid news of revised & final merger
plans (T&C). As par reports, VEDL will seek minority
shareholder's (Including LIC & Cairn Plc) approval for
merger with the revised T&C in Sep'16.
Meanwhile, Q1 results of
Axis Bank just published and at a glance, it may be way below
street estimates with higher trajectory of NPLS. Price action on
the Monday will be interesting as investors can give buying
support at lower level for Axis Bank.
Overall, there will be many
drivers of the market amid GST bill presentation probability,
FED meet on 27-th July and BOJ on 29-th July.
Have a great weekend----
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