Nifty May Be Range Bound Today Amid Flat Global Cues & Hopes Of RBI Cut; But Hawkish Fed And Demonetization Woes May Continue To Drag

Market Mantra: 06/12/2016 (08:30)

Sad Demise Of “Amma” May Create A Political Vacuum Not Only In TN, But Also In The Centre, Being The 3-rd Largest Party; GST May Be Further Delayed.

Watch 8215-8275 & 8125-8060 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8150.

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8150 (-23 points) following flat global cues.

Overnight US market was strong (+0.24%) on the back of upbeat ISM Non-Mfg PMI, which came at 57.2 against estimate of 55.4 (prior: 54.8). USD was mixed amid falling US bond yields and DXY has broken the key technical level of 100.45 and now trading around 100. Any fall below 99 may further drag it towards 97-96 zone just weeks before Fed meet. 

In EU, Italian PM, who has offered his resignation yesterday after defeat in the constitutional referendum was asked by the President/Parliament to continue till the budget. But, Italian banking recapitalization effort may be hampered because of this ongoing political risks there (4 PM in the last 6 years!!).

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the ECB & Draghi’s comments day after tomorrow apart from Fed’s stance (forward guidance for 2017) on 16^th Dec as 0.25% rate hike is almost certain now.

Back to home, apart from the demonetization related news flows, all eyes will be on the progress of GST. As par Kerala FM, dual control mechanism may not be passed by the GST council as there is no consensus due to “adamant” nature of both sides (states & centre) and also for the fact that the Centre does not have the required 2/3^rd majority in the GST council.

Thus, as of now, there is little hope for the passage in the current Parliament session unless there is a consensus on the next meeting (10-11 Dec), but there is little hope.

Market will be focused on RBI action tomorrow and hopes are now running very high for 0.50-1.00% repo rate cuts on the back of falling inflation and growth as a result of demonetization.  

Technically, NF has to sustain over 8195-8215* area for further rebound towards 8275*-8335 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 8125*-8100 area, NF may further fall towards 8060/8040*-8000 & 7950-7900* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18481) has to sustain over 18575-18650* area for further rally towards 18800-18975* & 19100*-19350 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 18450-18300* area, BNF may further fall towards 18200*-18100 & 17950-17850* zone for the day (under bear case scenario).

 SGX-NF

 BNF