Market Mantra: 22/12/2016
(08:30)
Watch 8040-7980 & 8135-8210 Zone In
Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8050 Today
Banks may be under pressure for not only
demonetization related woes and expected dip in NIM; but also from the
proposed change in accounting norms (Ind-AS-109) to be effective from April’18,
which may hurt its earnings significantly for the short term due to computation
of “expected credit loses” (ECL).
Hawkish RBI minutes may also drag the
sentiment of the domestic market.
As
par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8050 (-27 points),
slightly in negative note following tepid global cues and some fall in oil.
Although, US existing home sales came yesterday was better than expected, it
failed to yield any significant positive impact on USD and some yearend profit
booking may cause the Dow to fall by some extent (-0.19%) as the “much awaited
historical milestone” of 20k remains elusive by some small distance.
Oil
was also under pressure after larger than expected inventory drawdown. China
market is also under some pressure as concern over bond market & some
defaults continues.
Globally,
all eyes will be the bailout effort of Monte Paschi & other Italian banks
by the Govt there, as private investors are apparently not so much interested
as of now. Global market will also keenly watch today’s last data deluge before
the Christmas holidays (US GDP, Personal Consumption, Core PCE & Durable
goods order) to have an assessment about the core strength of the US economy to
withstand successive rate hikes next year (3 dot plots as par Fed so far).
Back
to home, all eyes will be on the demonetization & remonetization fiasco,
ongoing political battle, eyeing for not only the 2017 series of state
elections, but also the 2019 general election.; if demonetization is
successful, then there may be no “concerns” for NAMO in 2019 election; but if
it fails and bring more chaos, unemployment and economic slowdown, then RAGA
& Co may have the last laugh.
All
eyes will be also on the GST meeting today for any consensus; but hope is very
low for an April’17 roll out of the GST this time; may be the expectation will
be shifted towards Sep’17 now.
Hints for actionable trade ideas:
Technically, NF has to sustain over
8040 zone today; otherwise it may further fall towards 7980-7915* & 7875*-7835
area for the day (under bear case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining above
8075 area, NF may rebound towards 8105/8135*-8185 & 8210*-8275 zone for the
day (under bullish case scenario).
Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18095) has to sustain
over 17980 area today; otherwise it may further fall towards 17900*-17800 &
17730-17600* zone for the day (bear case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining above
18250 zone, BNF may further rebound towards 18400*-18500 & 18650*-18850
area for the day (bullish case scenario).
SGX-NF
BNF
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