Thursday 29 December 2016

Nifty May Be Under Stress Amid Tepid Global Cues & Some Apprehensions Over Reports Of An Impending “NAMO Speech” On 31st Dec To “The Nation” (?)



Market Mantra: 29/12/2016 (08:30)

Watch 7980-7940 & 8075-8120 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8010 Today

BNF need to sustain above 18000-18150 zone for any further “Santa Rally”.

Although there may be some concern about an unconfirmed news that NAMO will address the nation on the 31st Dec evening, drops in USD & Oil and extension of loan repayment days by RBI due to demonetization may help the market sentiment.

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8010 (-14 points) following tepid global/Asian cues.

Overnight US market corrected by around 0.56% in a low volume holiday thinned market after disappointing pending home sales figure, which came at -2.5% against +0.5% estimate (Prior: + 0.1%). The sudden unexpected drop in US pending home sales may be an early indication of higher cost of borrowing coupled with high prices & low inventory. Thus, going forward, there may be some doubt, whether US economy can withstand successive Fed rate hikes and a stronger USD. As a result, USD & US bond yields drops to some extent and “Trump Rally” also fades for US stock market.

Oil is also down for an unexpected inventory buildup in a private report.

Back to home, drops in USD & Oil may help the Indian market sentiment to some extent, but an unconfirmed report that NAMO will address the nation on 31st Dec evening, after demonetization deadline expires for exchange of old notes, may also keep the market in some kind of pressure ahead of various uncertainties in the new year (2017).

Hints for actionable trading ideas: 


Technically, NF has to sustain over 7980 zone today; otherwise it may further fall towards 7940-7915/7890* & 7840*-7790 area for the day (under bearish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining above 8040 zone, NF may further rebound towards 8075-8120* & 8160-8200* area for the day (under bullish case scenario).

Similarly, BNF (LTP: 17866) has to sustain over 18150 area for further rebound towards 18250*-18350 & 18450*-18700 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 18000 zone, NF may further fall towards 17800*-17700 & 17600*-17350 area for the day (under bear case scenario).




NF



BNF

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