Technical & Macro Analysis Of Indian & Global Market----: DLF: 100-112 Zone May Be Big Hurdle In The Days Ahead

Wednesday, 3 February 2016

DLF: 100-112 Zone May Be Big Hurdle In The Days Ahead

Sustaining below 100-88, may fall up to 65-60 in the near term

With a actual TTM EPS of 3.30, DLF is quoting around 30 PE
Against industry PE of 22 & Nifty PE of 20
Is it too much expensive ?

CMP: 93

Either sell below 88 or on rise around 100-106;

TGTS: 80-77-65-60 (1-12M)

TSL> 108/112

Note: Consecutive closing above 112 for at least 3 days, DLF may rally up to 125-140 in the alternative bullish scenario.

DLF reported a 24.4% (QOQ) and (-) 55.5% growth (YOY) in consolidated Q3FY16 PAT for Rs.163.95 cr against Rs.131.50 cr & Rs.368.62 cr respectively.

Q3 diluted EPS was at 0.92 against consensus of 1.05 (QOQ-0.74 & YOY-2.07).

Q3FY16 profit was largely supported on account of gains made from sale of assets/lands to GIC (SGX) at gross consideration of Rs.1992 cr against total revenue of Rs.2827.66 cr.

As par some street estimates, consolidated total revenue including the GIC deal was expected around Rs.3970 cr in Q3FY16.

As par BG metrics and current market parameters:
(Based on consolidated diluted TTM & FWD EPS)

Current median value of DLF may be around: 93 (FY:15-16/TTM)

Projected fair valuation might be around: 98-120 (FY:17-18/FWD)

But considering the present real estate market conditions and the average actual EPS for the last three FY (which is around 2.75), projected FY-18 EPS of 5.25 by the analysts may be on the higher side as nearly 90% growth in earnings is required by FY-18 !!