Nifty Fut (Feb): 7625-7655 Zone Now Vital For More Up Side----

Sustaining above 7625-7655 zone may rally up to 7850-8005

Otherwise, consecutive closing below 7580-7540, may again revisit 7385-7215

Oil & China may be the drivers along with RBI & Budget hopes

Trading Levels:Nifty Fut(Feb)

SGX NF: 7600 (CMP)

NSE-NF: 7565 (LTP)

	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
For	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	7655		7690-710*	7730-760	7801-860*	7901-950	7985-8005	<7635
Weak <	7635		7617-580*	7540-520	7485-445*	7405-385*	7350-315	>7655
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	7655		7710*	7760	7860*	7950	8005-55	<7635
Weak <	7635		7580*	7520	7445*	7385*	7315-215	>7655

The current global rally (dead cat bounce ?) started with some market buzz about Oil production cut by every producing country by 5%. Apparently, Russia took some serious initiative, but Iran denied it soon. It may be a pure fantasy to think that all oil producing countries will cut production by even 5%, including US shale oil companies. 

In any way, technically Crude has to sustain above $33.80-35.50 zone for any serious short covering and big rally up to 40-48; otherwise, below 31, we may see again 27.50 & 24 level in the near term.

As we all know, Japan shocked/surprised the world on last Friday with its negative interest stance (above certain balance of current A/C of Institutions parked with bank) as a part of its evergreen QQE. But, some experts also feel that excessive QQE in Japan, can also cause a Chinese style of capital out flow.

Now, ECB & BOJ blazing all the guns along with stabilization effort of PBOC, the king of all the central bankers, i.e. FED may take a "wait & watch" stance with dovish bias to keep the USD under control and will not opt for hike in March'15. FED may take more dovish stance, keeping in mind the present market turmoil and tepid inflation trend in US and will not allow USD to get more strength at this stage, because of policy divergence between it & other major central bankers. 

FFR is now virtually indicating one hike @0.25% only in Dec'16. If the present sentiment of "gloom & doom" continues for some more months, there are some market buzz that FED may come forward with some other version of QQE-4 and may also take the negative interest stance as of ECB & BOJ to stimulate its own economy. But, the big question is that, will another QQE be helpful for the Oil as it is the easy money, which encouraged for the present state of over production/capacity in Oil and other commodities and in contrast, demand was not grown as expected.

In any way, SPF also need to sustain above 1920-1940 zone for any meaningful rally from here.

Back home, be it Oil/BOJ or some market talk about RBI cut tomorrow, our market rallied quite smartly. Also there are some hopes on forthcoming parliament session for a dream budget and passage of key bills, including GST. 

Although, there is a great probability that this time GST may be passed after some drama on the Hyderabad student incident, unless global sentiment improves, nothing will help our broader market in the near term, even after some dead cat bounce. Passage of GST this time may be more sentimental and will not be a game changer as in the near term, market need to see much real better corporate earnings. On the other side, a non-event type of budget and failure of GST getting passed this time, we may see Nifty running towards 7000-6300 level in the months ahead.

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