Technical & Macro Analysis Of Indian & Global Market----: Nifty (Fut) Need To Trade Above 8575-8595 For Further Clinton Inspired Rally Today--Watch 8545-8525 For Any Downside In NF

Tuesday, 8 November 2016

Nifty (Fut) Need To Trade Above 8575-8595 For Further Clinton Inspired Rally Today--Watch 8545-8525 For Any Downside In NF

Market Mantra: 08/11/2016 (08:15)

As par early SGX indication NF may open around 8530 (+21 points), following overnight rally in US Stock Fut (+1.75%) after various opinion polls indicate around 85% chance of Clinton win and 55% chance of Democrats (Clinton) retaining the control of the senate. Clinton is around 3% ahead of Trump on an average in all the major polls. US market rallied most in a day since 1-st March'16.

But morning China data (below expected trade balance with tepid trend of export) has dampened the "risk on" sentiment to some extent and overnight US Stock Fut is trading down a bit.

Technically, NF has to sustain over 8575-8595* area for further rally towards 8650*-8705 & 8750-8800* zone for the day (bullish case scenario after opening gap up).

On the other side, sustaining below 8545*-8525 zone, NF may further fall towards 8480*-8435 & 8405-8365 area in the bear case scenario.

Similarly, BNF (19374) need to sustain above 19500*-19550 area after probable gap up opening today for further rally towards 19650*-19750 & 19825*-19950 zone in the bullish scenario.

On the flip side, sustaining below 19450-19400* area, BNF may further fall towards 19300-19200* & 19150-18950* zone in the bear case scenario.

SPF (2124) need to sustain above 2135 area for further "Clinton Rally" towards 2150*-2175 zone and sustaining below 2120, it may fall towards 2110/2105*-2075 area in the immediate to short term.

As par some reports, despite FBI clean chit for Clinton, there are sufficient ground for the US congress/house to impeach her in the event of her Presidency and house may be well divided for such action. Thus, absolute majority for Clinton (Democrats) is necessary in this "unusual" 2016 US election; otherwise there may be more chaos and uncertainty even post election.

Domestically, Tata-Mistry episode may continue drag some specific Tata stocks and overall market sentiment as SEBI decides to probe for the insider trading compliance allegation against TATA SONS leveled by a group of FII(s).

Market will also focus on a bout of Q2FY17 earnings to be released today. We may see some stock specific action rather than overall volatility of the benchmarks index.