Watch
8000-7920* & 8050-8090* Zone In NF
Market Mantra: 25/11/2016
(08:30)
As
Par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8030 (+20 points)
after overnight rally in US stock Futs and morning positive Asian cues.
Nikkei-225 (Japan) is trading strong as a result of weaker Yen. In the morning,
USDJPY gained more strength after Japanese CPI disappoints. Also, US stock Futs
are trading at life time high as “Trump Rally” continues amid hopes of more
fiscal spending & tax cuts, which may both spur US GDP & corporate earnings
growth along with surge inflation & more job creation.
As
USD is getting stronger, almost all the EM & Asian currencies are under
pressure; but weaker Yen & Yuan are making both Japanese & Chinese
market stronger as both the economies are primarily export oriented. Having
said that, Chinese Yuan are trading now around 6.95 and any further devaluation
towards 7.25 may cause significant global headwinds for the risk assets as seen
in 2015.
Although,
India, as a domestic consumption story with little contribution of export on
the overall GDP of the country, may be insulated partly from any real global
shocks, consistent USD strength may cause significant fund outflow from the
FPI(s).
USDINR
is expected to rally towards 71 level despite RBI intervention on the
divergence of USDINR bond yield spreads, interest rate differentials and
probable out flow of around $16 bln (FCNR & FCCB redemptions) in the coming
days.
Also,
the present scenario of both short & long term impact of demonetization and
“war on black money” on the Indian GDP, domestic consumption and corporate earnings
recovery may have made FII(s) jittery about the domestic market.
As
a result of demonetization led political chaos and “war of words” may also
delay the final passage of GST bill and implementation of the same from April’17
and in that scenario, because of series of state elections, GST roll out in Sep’17
may be also looking doubtful. Eventually, GST may be also postponed until 2019
general election.
The
domestic market sentiment may be also affecting due to ongoing tensions at LOC
(Pak) in J&K, which may turn into serious all out war at any point of time
due to domestic pressure & political compulsions of both the countries.
Technically, NF has t
sustain over 8050* area for further rebound towards 8090*-8160 & 8210-8290*
for the day (under mild to extreme bullish scenario).
On the other side,
sustaining below 8000* zone, NF may further fall towards 7960-7920 & 7880-7810*
area for the day (under mild to extreme bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF (18392)
has to sustain over 18450* area for 18600*-18760 & 18850-19070* zone for
the day (under mild to extreme bull case scenario).
On the other side,
sustain below 18350* zone, BNF may further fall towards 18200*-17950 &
17750*-17450 area for the day (under mild to extreme bear case scenario).
SGX-NF
BNF
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