Technical & Macro Analysis Of Indian & Global Market----: Nifty Poised For A Much Awaited "Relief Rally" After FBI "Clears" Clinton--But US Election Suspense Is Not Over---Watch 8545-8595 & 8480-8440 In NF

Monday, 7 November 2016

Nifty Poised For A Much Awaited "Relief Rally" After FBI "Clears" Clinton--But US Election Suspense Is Not Over---Watch 8545-8595 & 8480-8440 In NF

Market Mantra: 07/11/2016 (08:20)

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov)/NF may open in positive gap-up around 8505 (+47 points) after FBI virtually cleared Clinton of any criminal prosecution because of her e-mail issues.

As a result USD jumped across the board and precious metals (Gold/Silver) doomed & EQ/Bond rallied in a "risk on" sentiment.

Technically:

SPF (2105) has to sustain over 2110 area for further rally towards 2140-2150 zone; otherwise it may again fall towards 2085-2075 territory in the near term.

NF (8505) has to sustain over 8545 area for further rally towards 8595*-8655 & 8705*-8750 zone for the day (bullish case scenario).

On the other side; sustaining below 8485 zone, NF may fall towards 8440*-8405 & 8360*-8315 area as the day may progress (bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF (19145) has to sustain over 19150 area for further rally towards 19320*-19450 & 19550*-19700 zone for the day (bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 19040 area, BNF may further fall towards 18950-18850* & 18650*-18550 zone as the day may proceeds (bear case scenario).

As predicted by my earlier posts on Friday that FBI may "clear" Clinton for the e-mail saga by weekend because of immense political pressure, FBI indeed has just done that "overnight" after its "officers had done an extraordinary amount of high quality work in a short span of time".

This virtually cleared Clinton of all the doubts about her candidacy & high probability (??) presidency and the uncertainty prevailing over the last week for the US election outcome and risk assets rallied in the early Asian session.

Another reason may be that the latest opinion poll suggesting 8 points higher approval rate for Clinton, which was almost neck & neck last week.

In any way, global risk sentiment has improved significantly, which may prevail until another round of opinion polls (??) till actual election day & result.

Going by the overall scenario, it may be still a close fight between Clinton & Trump camp, despite FBI clearance as this election is somewhat different and people on the "real street" may decide their next US Prez rather than the "wall street".

Domestically, a strong USDINR as a result of higher probability of Clinton & FII concern over Tata-Mistry duet may affect the market sentiment after gap up opening today.