Market Mantra: 22/11/2016
(08:30)
As
par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Nov) may open around 8005 (+46 points)
after overnight rally in US stock Futs & positive Asian cues amid rally in
oil & some drops in US bond yields.
Currently, S&P-500
Fut (SPF) is trading at life time high (2200) and next rally may only come on
sustaining above 2210-2215* area for target of 2235*-2260 zone; otherwise
sustaining below 2205 zone, it may fall towards 2190*-2170 area in the near
term.
Oil
rallied after jawboning by Russian President Putin and a report that Iran-Iraq
may agree for a production freeze/cut (?) in the much awaited OPEC meet later
this month. But, still there are lots of skepticism about modalities and
reality of any OPEC induced production cut/freeze and its durability. In any way, Crude Oil (48.70), need to
sustain above 50-53 for any further meaningful rally towards 63-71 in the near term;
otherwise it may again come down towards 45-43. Trump policy of pumping
more US oil and less reliance on import may drag down oil despite continuous
OPEC jawboning & squabbling.
USD
is under pressure after tremendous “Trump Rally” on the notion that “Trumponomics”
may bring some kind of stagflation in the US economy. Also, last night’s
massive earthquake is making Yen stronger as generally, such devastating
earthquake and probable tsunami may invite more domestic fund flows (JPY) in to
rebuilding of Japan.
But,
these are all temporary drivers and ultimately, due to monetary policy divergence
between Fed & BOJ/ECB will make USD stronger and increasing EU political
risks may add further strength to the USD, making EM currencies extremely
vulnerable.
Thus,
apart from the ongoing global headwinds & hawkish Fed, Indian market has
also its own domestic issues (headwinds) in the form of demonetization lead
chaos and its immediate & long term impact on the GDP, consumption/demands
& earnings of the corporate India.
Also,
intensified political battles for this demonetization may also wash out the
current winter session of parliament and jeopardize the passage of final GST
bill & the implementation of the same from April’17. It may also impact
overall reform initiatives of the Govt as public & market sentiment is also
severely affected.
Technically, NF has to
sustain over 8020* zone for further rebound towards 8055-8100* & 8160*-8210
area for the day (bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining
below 8000* zone, it may further fall towards 7970-7920* & 7870-7700* area
for the day (bear case scenario)
Similarly, BNF (18492)
has to sustain above 18600* zone for further rally towards 18900-19050* &
19200-19450* area for the day (bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining
below 18500* zone, BNF may further fall towards 18340*-18200 & 18100-17850*
area for the day (bear case scenario).
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