Nifty May Open Flat Amid Tepid Global Cues Marked By Skepticism About Any Real OPEC Agreement; Domestically, Will The Latest VDS/Amnesty Scheme For The “Black Money” Out Of Demonetization Help The Indian Consumption Story & The Market?

Watch 8210-8275 & 8060-7995 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open Around 8180

Market Mantra: 30/11/2016 (08:30)

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8180 (+8 points) following tepid global cues amid growing skepticism over any meaningful OPEC cut or even freeze agreement later in the day. In the latest OPEC “circus”, although Iran & Iraq has softened their stance, it’s may not be enough for the Saudis to even attend the meeting.

Technically, Crude Oil (45.41) may fall significantly below 42 in case of “no agreement” and may crash towards 32 in the days ahead.

In case of any “freeze” agreement, it may bounce towards 48 and if there is any “cut” agreement it may even reach 58-62 levels, depending upon the fine print/feasibility of the “cut” agreement.

Although, yesterday‘s US economic data came above expectation, specially GDP & consumer confidence, but the USD was not able to rally much. Some of the reasons may be continuous Twitter rhetoric by the “President Trump” and lack of any clear cut guidance for 2017 rate action by Fed as of now (Forward guidance). Market may be assuming that there may be another pause of Fed rate hike for at least six months after Dec’16.

Back to home, it seems that the demonetization and “war on black money” has now turned into another VDS/Amnesty scheme and “digital economy” by the Govt after keeping the entire nation on banking queues for more than 20 days. 

As par latest RBI data, almost 60% of the banned HDICN has entered into the banking system as of now. As par various reports, another 20% may be now with the banking chests and the rest 10-20% may be further deposited with the banks to get it converted. Thus, the much speculated & expected windfall gain of Rs.3.5 lakh cr by the Govt as a result of similar reduction of RBI liabilities may not hold good, as almost all the HDICN(s) will return to the banks. In any case, it should not be accounted as “profit” of RBI as rightly pointed out by one of the former RBI Gov.

But, the real question is how much will it help for the Indian economy/consumption story in the long term, even if 25% of the so called “black/unaccounted money” gets into system officially after passing so much hurdles of IT scrutiny?

Technically, NF (LTP: 8180) has to sustain over 8195-8210* zone for further rebound towards 8250-8275* & 8310-8375* area for the day (bull case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 8160*-8135 area, NF may further fall towards 8095-8065/8040* & 7995-7945* & 7915-7880* zone for the day (bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18314), has to sustain above 18450 area for further rally towards 18650-18750* & 18950-19050* zone for the day (bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 18300 zone, BNF may further fall towards 18200*-18100 & 17950*-17850 & 17750* area for the day (bear case scenario).

 SGX-NF