Market
Mantra: 06/02/2017 (08:30)
Watch 8775-8690 & 8800-8855 Zone In
Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8805 Today
Indian market sentiment is being supported
by “no negative budget”, mixed or some upbeat Q3FY17 earnings so far despite
demonetization blues, some steps for the banks (incremental tax benefit for
provisions, AT1 bond deregulation by RBI) & hopes for rate cuts by RBI ON 8th
Feb by at least 0.25%. But market may also turned cautious ahead of RBI,
deluge of earnings this week, UP elections outcome and “Trump Tantrum”.
As
par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Feb) may open around 8805 (+47 points)
following positive global cues. On Friday, although headline US NFP flashed
much above market estimates at 227k (consensus: 175k; prior: 157k), average
hourly earnings for Jan grew only by 0.1% against estimate of 0.3% (MOM) and
unemployment rate came as 4.8% against estimate of 4.7%. Overall US NFP &
others data (service PMI & ISM Non-Mfg PMI) was mixed / tepid and was
negative for USD/US bond yields. But, one of Trump’s deregulation step (Dood
Frank & retirement advisor rule abolition) has boosted the sentiment of the
Wall Street, specially financials & banks. As a result, domestic market
today may open in gap up today.
But,
going by various other “executive orders” & comments from Trump, specially
the immigration fiasco, it seems that US may soon be going into a state of
constitutional crisis (conflict with judiciary). Also, some of the Pro-Russian
(Putin) comments by Trump, may eventually stamp him as a “Russian Agent” (!!).
In any way, global market is likely to be on its toes because of “Trumpomania”
in the coming days.
Back
to home, although FY-18 budget has no negatives and may be the “best” under the
prevalent circumstances of demonetization disruptions, as par some analysts,
more could be done by the Govt. In any way, most likely this budget may not
help India for a rating upgrade in the near future, for which the Govt is now
seems desperate (for incremental flow of FDI & private capex).
Hints for actionable trading ideas:
Technically, NF has to sustain over 8825-8855*
zone for further rally towards 8895*-8950 & 8995*-9075 area for the day
(under bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining below
8800-8775* area, NF may fall towards 8725-8690/8660* & 8625-8545* zone for
the day (under bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF (LTP: 20260) has to
sustain over 20350 zone for further rally towards 20500-20650* area for the day
(under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below
20300 area, BNF may fall towards 20000*-19850 & 19500*-19400 zone for the
day (under bear case scenario).
SGX-NF
BNF
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