Nifty May Open In Positive Tone In Line With Late Rebound Of US Market & Mixed Global Cues Ahead Of Budget & Mfg PMI/Auto Sales Data; Whatever Be The Budget, 8545-8745 May Be Crucial For Any Decisive Movement Of The Market In Either Side

Market Mantra: 01/02/2017 (08:30)

Watch 8665-8545 & 8685-8745 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8600 Today

As par reports, Govt may allow private railways concept to be run on IR infra in line with private airlines (AAI) and this may be a significant step towards another structural reform (ease of doing business also involved ease of travelling for the public).

Pharma & IT may be under renewed pressure as Trump Tantrum continues amid jawboning effort to devalue the USD.

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Feb) may open around 8600 (+14 points) amid mixed global/Asian cues in a holiday thinned market (China is closed till tomorrow). Overnight USD was under pressure amid Trump tantrum about immigration & other trade protection issues. Trump & Co even accused China, Japan, Germany, EU and virtually all the other G-10/20 countries as “currency manipulator” to weaken their own currencies, thereby making USD stronger, which is going against the interest of US economy & the US corporates. But, it’s also a fact that, because of huge positive trade balance, China/Japan/EU are the biggest holders of US TSY and that is also helping the US economy to borrow cheap for decades.

Trump also warned the “Prescription” Pharma industries about their exorbitant prices and asked them to manufacture in US itself. This along with H1B visa issues and the effort to “talk down” the USD may not be good for Indian IT & Pharma industries in the coming days.

Back to home, there is huge expectation of budget this year after demonetization fiasco and any disappointment or even in line with expectations may cause some correction after the recent steep rally (buy on rumour & sale after news).

Hints for actionable trading ideas:

Technically, NF need to stay above 8685-8705 area for any rally towards 8745*-8795 & 8855*-8895 zone for the day (under mild to extreme bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 8665-8605 zone, NF may fall towards 8545*-8505 & 8455*-8390 and even 8315-8290* under mild to extreme bear case scenario for the budget day.

Similarly, BNF (LTP: 19590) has to sustain over 19925 zone for further rally towards 20000-20350* & 20600 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 19850 area, BNF may further fall towards 19700-19550 & 19450*-19200 & 19000-18800/18600* zone for the day (under mild to extreme bear case scenario).

 SGX-NF

BNF