Market
Wrap: 28/02/2017 (19:00)
Meanwhile
India’s Q3FY17 GDP flashed as 7% against consensus of 6.4% (QOQ: 7.3%; YOY:
7.2%) trashing all the DeMo blues by accounting only “available data currently”;
i.e. only formal part of the economy (??); As par CSO: “impact of policies like
DeMo difficult to assess with a lot of data”.
Will
market believe this “surprised” GDP data, which basically said that there is
actually no impact of DeMo on the economy even in Q3FY17?
Looking at the chart, Nifty Fut (March @8913)
has to sustain over 8995 area for further rally towards 9035-9075 &
9125-9195 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining below 8975
zone, NF may fall towards 8910-8875* & 8815-8765 area in the near term
(under bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF (LTP: 20695) has to
sustain over 20950 area for further rally towards 21050-21150 & 21350-21500
area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the other side, sustaining below
20900-20750 area, BNF may fall towards 20600*-20500 & 20250-20000 zone in
the near term (under bear case scenario).
Nifty
Fut (March) today closed around 8913 (-2 points), almost flat after making an
opening session high of 8938.45 and day low of 8884.15. The Indian market today
opened almost flat on the back of mixed global cues ahead of Trump’s much
awaited congressional speech and confusion of any specific trajectory of his fiscal/infra
spending plan. But, soon after opening in slight positive zone, domestic market
fall into negative zone on the concern of a tepid Q3FY17 GDP as a result of
DeMo.
The
market sentiment improved somewhat, after OECD predicted India’s FY-17 GDP
growth as 7% and 7.3% & 7.7% for FY: 18 & 19. Also, India’s Economic
Affairs Secretary (Das) reaffirmed in the same OECD venue that states are ready
to implement GST from July’17 and as such there should not be any issue to roll
out of the same by then. All these positive commentary made the NF to respect
the 10-dema, currently around 8890 and the market saw some short covering/value
buying, especially in some of the GST related stocks and closed the day almost
flat.
Indian
market today was dragged by BPCL (after ONGC-HPCL deal, which may be negative
for the sector, at least in the short term because of high leverage concern),
Grasim (for capex concern after Idea-Vodafone deal?), private banks &
financials, auto (concern of poor Feb sales nos) and FMCG stocks.
Nifty
was well supported today by sudden spurt of Bhel in the last hour of trading
session apart from Bharti Airtel, Yes Bank, Asian Paints.
After
market hours today, India’s fiscal deficit (Apr-Jan) flashed as Rs.5.64 tln,
which is almost 105.7% of FY-17 target. Infrastructure/core sector output came
as 3.4% against 5.7% (YOY). But most surprisingly Q3FY17 GDP growth was stated
as 7% against consensus of 6.4% (QOQ: 7.3%; YOY: 7.2%), defying all the DeMo
blues.
Q3FY17
GVA flashed as 6.6% against estimate of 6.1% (QOQ: 7.1%; YOY: 6.9%). CSO also
projected FY-17 GDP growth as 7.1% against estimate of 6.4% YOY: 7.9%).
Overall,
apart from construction & financial sector, almost all the other sectors
showed remarkable resilience in Q3, even in the back drops of the DeMo. Even
private consumption expenditure was grown by 10% against 7.5% sequentially.
Also gross fixed capital formation was up by 3.5% against decline of 5.6% on
QOQ basis. But the most significant contribution of the Q3 GDP may be the Govt
consumption expenditure, which was up by 19.9% against 15.2% sequentially.
As
par CSO, improvement in GVA and stable GDP in Q3FY17 is because of increase in
taxes & fall in subsidies; but gross capital formation is a matter of
concern, which falls below 30% in FY-17. CSO also maintained that GDP numbers
announced today by taking only available data currently and it’s very difficult
to assess impact of DeMo so quickly, as it involved lots of data.
Thus,
basically today’s 7% GDP data may be taken into account only the available data
from the formal (organized) sector of the economy and may not reflect the
severe economic disruption by the informal (unorganized) sector of the economy
as a result of DeMo. We may know more about the true figure of Q3 GDP only by
May’17, when CSO will release the final estimate, taking into more available
data. Thus, final GDP number may vary significantly after taking into account
full impact of DeMo (??).
There
were visible slides in various economic activities and sudden dips in PMI data
after DeMo; but despite that it seems that CSO did not take into account all of
the DeMo data including surge in bank deposits and in that scenario, market may
look into the PMI and other high frequency data in the coming days to assess
the actual impact.
In
the days ahead, we may know more about the Q3 GDP number released today as
experts will certainly analyze it more minutely. But, a sudden dip in CPI in Q3
may also be one of the reasons for today’s surprised number (GDP output in
current prices – inflation?). Also, as par EX-CSO, difference between Q3 GVA
& GDP (6.6-7%) may be due to pre-payment of taxes and GFCF is based mainly
on consumption of steel & cement, which is a byproduct of incremental Govt
infra spending.
In
any way, when an economy is growing at a projected rate of 7.5-8% year after year,
it does not need any incremental rate cuts from RBI also. If there is no Trump disappointment
today, Nifty may open gap up tomorrow on the back of better than expected GDP;
but the key question may be that will the market really believe it or not?
Watch 8995-9015 area in NF for any
breakout; otherwise it may be again sell on rise.
SGX-NF
BNF
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