Nifty May Open Subdued Amid Mixed Global Cues; Domestic Market Sentiment May Be Boosted By A Dovish FOMC Minutes; But Hawkish RBI MPC Minutes & Cautious IMF Stance On India’ Growth May Also Cap Any Significant Upside

Market Mantra: 23/02/2017 (08:30)

Watch 8955-8850 & 8975-9035 Zone In Nifty Fut (Feb), Which May Open Around 8930 Today

All eyes may be also on the BMC poll result today; any BJP surprise may also boost the market sentiment as it may be seen as positive approval rating for NAMO in the backdrop of demonetization & vice-versa.

Bharti Airtel (LTP: 361) may be in pressure today/in the coming days as R-Jio’s aggressive data tariff plan may force it to offer more discounts to its high value subscribers and even to the lower segment of the data user. Also news of Telenor takeover may put some pressure on the scrip because of capex & huge debt issue.

Technically, sustaining below 360 zone, the scrip may fall towards 345-325 & 311-305 area in the near term. The stock may gain some strength only sustaining above 375 area for 380-385 and only consecutive closing above 385 area may rally further towards 440-455 zone.

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Feb) may open around 8930 (+10 points) following mixed global cues. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes may be slightly on the dovish side despite ongoing hawkish script by various Fed members. FOMC minutes revealed that Fed may be in no hurry to raise rates as inflation is still subdued without any imminent risk for becoming “too hot” as actual trajectory of “Trumponomics” may be still unclear. Fed is also concerned about adverse effect of a stronger USD and uncertainty about Trump’s actual tax reform & fiscal spending plan. Also, yesterday’s comments by Trump that US budget/fiscal deficit and overall Govt debt is becoming too risky has put some pressure on the USD.

A weaker USD may be good for EM including Indian market; but yesterday’s hawkish RBI MPC and cautious stance of IMF regarding FY-17 GDP growth trajectory may also put some pressure on the overall market sentiment (although both RBI & IMF are upbeat about FY-18 growth).

For RIL, apart from better ARPU probability, there are also some reports of a strategic investor & possibility of an early listing for R-JIO (deleveraging), which has boosted the scrip yesterday.

Hints for actionable trading ideas:

Technically, Nifty Fut (Feb @8920) or Nifty Spot has to sustain over 8975-8995 area for further rally towards 9035-9075 & 9125-9185 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 8955 zone, NF/NS may fall towards 8850-8805 & 8725-8665 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF (LTP: 20855) has to sustain over 20950 area for further rally towards 21050-21200 & 21350-21450 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 20900 zone, BNF/BNS may fall towards 20750-20650 & 20500-20400 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

NF

 BHARTI