Nifty May Open Flat Amid Tepid Global/Asian Cues Following Downbeat China Mfg PMI Data (Caixin) Ahead Of US NFP; For Any Further Rally, NF Need To Sustain Over 8800 Zone

Market Mantra: 03/02/2017 (08:30)

Watch 8775-8690 & 8800-8855 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8735 Today

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Feb) may open around 8735 (+4 points), almost flat following tepid Global/Asian cues. Today China market opened after a long New Year (Lunar) holiday and one of its stock future index (A-500) is trading down by around 1.5% following blow expected Caixin Mfg PMI data for Jan, which flashed at 51 (estimate: 51.8; prior: 51.9). This tepid PMI data, although may be seasonal, but may also undermine the recent credit fuelled overall economic recovery in China. Metals may be under some pressure in the Indian market today.

Globally, all eyes will be on the US NFP Job data later in the day today (estimate: 175k; unemployment rate: 4.7%; hourly wage growth: 0.3% MOM). Yesterday’s US jobless claims, Challenger job cuts and recent ADP job data may be all indicating an upbeat NFP headline above the consensus 175k figure (185-200k) and thus USD is getting some bids, despite Trump’s jawboning effort to talk down the same.

Dollar index (USDX) is also getting some support from the 99 area after recent corrections. Apart from the upbeat Q3 earnings &  decent budget, recent fall in USD may have also helped the Indian market.

Indian market may also look to the Service PMI (Jan) data today after upbeat Mfg PMI to gauze the demonetization impact on the service sector.

As market continue to focus on the ongoing Q3FY17 earnings and budget impact on the overall economy & its reflection on the earnings, irrespective of any narratives, NF has to sustain over 8800 zone for further rally towards 9000-9200 area; otherwise expect some corrections.

Hints for actionable trading ideas:

Technically, for today, sustaining below 8775 zone, NF may fall towards 8725/8690*-8650 & 8590*-8545 area for the day (under bear case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining above 8800 zone, NF may further rally towards 8855-8900* & 8950-8995* area for the day (under bullish case scenario).

Similarly, BNF (LTP: 20060) has to sustain over 20350 area for further rally towards 20500-20650* zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 20300 zone, BNF may fall towards 20190*-20000 & 19850*-19700 area for the day (under bear case scenario).

SGX-NF

 BNF