Nifty May Open In Positive Tone Following Upbeat Asian Cues; But Growing EU Political Risks & Strong USD May Be Some Of The Concerns For Domestic Market Amid Confusions About HDFC Bank Trade (FII); TCS & Ambuja Cement May Drag Today

Market Mantra: 21/02/2017 (08:30)

Watch 8875-8800 & 8895-8945 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8890 Today

Stock in the news: Ambuja Cement ( at par market expectation result; but guidance may not be good for RM cost escalation & lack of pricing power along with some other operational issues)

Technically, Ambuja Cement (LTP: 239) has to sustain over 248 for any further rally towards 255-262 & 281 in the near term (in bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 246-242 zone, it may fall towards 235-220 & 205-190 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

For investors, 205-190 area may be a good zone for accumulation, if goes there.

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Feb) may open around 8890 (+22 points) following upbeat Asian cues. Japan is trading almost 0.50% higher on the back of weak Yen. USD is getting stronger as one of the Fed member again talked about March’17 hike (?) amid recent hawkish script of nearly all the FOMC members, including Yellen. Also, increasing EU political risks (France, Germany, UK, and Italy) has made the USD stronger. Looking ahead, ECB may also divulge any plan of present bond buying tapering as it is increasingly “out of weapons”.

Back to home, the recent rally which was mainly fuelled by HDFC Bank, TCS, Infy and some telecom scrips may be under some stress amid confusion of FII trade settlement issues. Also, it seems that the overall buy back by TCS may eventually help EPS by around 1-3% and ROE by around 2%. So, this issue of buy back may be largely discounted by the decent rally in the scrip for the last few weeks., specially yesterday.

Technically, TCS (LTP: 2555) has to sustain over 2585-2605 zone for any further rally towards 2750 area; otherwise it will come down and sustain below 2475-2455 zone, may fall towards 2325-2245 area in the near term.

Hints for actionable trading ideas:

Technically, NF has to sustain over has to sustain over 8895 area for further rally towards 8925/8945-8995 & 9035-9075 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 8875 zone, NF may fall towards 8815-8770 & 8725-8630 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF (LTP: 20667) has to sustain over 20800 area for further rally towards 20950-21050 & 21300-21685 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 20750 zone, BNF may fall towards 20650-20450 & 20300-20000 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

 NF