Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/SPX-500): 11/05/2018

Updated: 08:45

SGX-NF: 10785 (+60; -0.56%)

Expected BNF opening: 26200 (+0.56%)

SPX-500: 2722 (+3; +0.11%)

Note: Gap-up opening on positive global/US cues after subdued (weaker-than-expected) US inflation data on Thursday, which may prompt Fed for the less hawkish approach (2 rate hikes in 2018 in lieu of 3) in the days ahead. But the Indian market may be cautious about surging oil and Karnataka election, especially after the Malaysian political debacle and anti-establishment sentiment coupled with political populism and pressure of domestic audience (higher cost of living and GST was one of the vital factors behind Malaysia’s political change and subsequent plunge in the risk-on sentiment there, which is affecting the Indian sentiment also). It also seems that BJP is not so much confident about a blockbuster result in Karnataka unlike in UP.

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:

10710/10660*-10610/10570-10495/10425

Resistance to NF:

10800*/10840-10875/10935-10975/11055

Support for BNF:

26125/26000-25900/25825*-25750/25600

Resistance to BNF:

26275*/26325-26650/26900-27150/27300

Support for SPX-500:

2705*/2680-2660/2635-2610/2580

Resistance to SPX-500:

2720/2750-2770/2785-2805/2845

Technical View (Positional-Nifty, Bank Nifty, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 10800 for a further rally towards 10840/10875-10935/10975 in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10780 NF may fall towards 10710/10660-10610/10570 in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 26275 for a further rally towards 26325/26650-26900/27150 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 26225 BNF may fall towards 26125/26000-25900/25825 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 now has to sustain over 2720 for a further rally towards 2750/2770-2785/2805 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2705, SPX-500 may fall towards 2680/2660-2635/2610 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Valuation metrics:

Nifty-50: 10717; Q3FY18 EPS: 403; Q3FY18 PE: 26.59; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360

Bank Nifty: 26131; Q3FY18 EPS: 807; Q3FY18 PE: 32.38; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220

SPX-500: 2723; TTM Q4-2017 EPS: 111; TTM PE: 24.53

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SGX-NF

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