Technical & Macro Analysis Of Indian & Global Market----: Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/SPX-500): 29/05/2018

Updated: 08:20

SGX-NF: 10645 (-31; -0.29%)

Expected BNF opening: 26425 (-0.30%)

SPX-500: 2719 (+1; +0.05%)

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:

10620/10600*-10570/10550-10490/10405-10365/10340

Resistance to NF:

10655/10675-10720*/10750-10800/10875-10935/10955

Support for BNF:

26350/26125*-26000/25800-25600/25500-25350/25150

Resistance to BNF:

26650/26825*-26950/27050-27150/27250-27500/27650

Support for SPX-500:

2715/2695*-2675/2655-2625/2610

Resistance to SPX-500:

2745/2760*-2775/2805-2820/2855

Technical View (Nifty, Bank Nifty, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 10675 for a further rally to 10720/10750-10800/10875-10935/10955 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 10655 NF may fall to 10620/10600-10570/10550-10490/10405 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 26650 for a further rally to 26825/26950-27050/27150-27250/27500 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 26600 BNF may fall to 26350/26125-26000/25800-25600/25500 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 now has to sustain over 2760 for a further rally to 2775/2805-2820/2855-2880/2895 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2745, SPX-500 may fall to 2725/2715-2695/2675-2655/2625 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Valuation metrics:

Nifty-50: 10689; Q3FY18 EPS: 403; Q3FY18 PE: 26.52; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360

Bank Nifty: 26614; Q3FY18 EPS: 807; Q3FY18 PE: 32.98; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220

SPX-500: 2721; TTM Q4-2017 EPS: 111; TTM PE: 24.51

Note: Negative opening on EU political crisis from Italy to Spain and also Brexit. The Asian market is also under stress on lower oil and USDJPY coupled with renewed concern about the success of the US-North Korea summit due to hard negotiation stance by the US, such as shipping out all the Nukes and missiles out North Korea.

For the Indian market, oil will be in focus apart from a deluge of earnings and also politics. As par Russian President Putin’s preference, oil (WTI) seems to get technical support around $65 level and in that scenario, oil could again boil towards $75. Brent oil is also trading around now around $75 and even if it stays in the $75-85 levels for few months, then it could spell a disaster for the Indian macros.

In politics, all eyes will be on the by-poll results on Thursday to see whether INC is making any progress. But ongoing political squabbling in the INC-JDS coalition government in Karnataka regarding the allocation of ministries, especially the Finance ministry not a good sign at all for the “united oppositions” or so-called “Federal Front”. That may be positive for the BJP in the 2019 general election.

JDS (CM) Kumaraswamy commented on Monday that his government is not chosen by the people of Karnataka, but by the INC. This may be an indication of a rift between INC and JDS, although such political squabbling is natural in the Indian politics. But the market may have also got some boost on such rift in the “opposition unity”.

GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS:

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