Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/SPX-500): 09/05/2018

Updated: 08:25

SGX-NF: 10715 (-20; -0.18%)

Expected BNF opening: 25980 (-0.20%)

SPX-500: 2669 (-0.75; -0.02%)

Note: Gap-down/flat opening on subdued global cues amid renewed concern about geopolitical tensions after Trump walks out of Iran deal as highly expected, but the overall stance may be termed as less hawkish than expected. Oil whipsawed after Trump’s decision and conciliatory tones to re-negotiate a new deal with Iran, but oil now surged in the Asian session and hovering around $70.60 after Trump dumps the Iran deal coupled with unexpected US inventory drawdown report from API data. A combination of higher oil and higher USD may not be good for the import-oriented Indian economy and the overall market, although it may be good for Nifty earnings.

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:

10680/10660-10630*/10570-10500/10450

Resistance to NF:

10740/10780-10800*/10840-10875/10935

Support for BNF:

25825*/25650-25400/25250-24950/24700

Resistance to BNF:

25925/26050-26150*/26275-26550/26750

Support for SPX-500:

2660*/2635-2610/2595-2580/2565

Resistance to SPX-500:

2675/2695-2705*/2730-2750/2770

Technical View (Positional-Nifty, Bank Nifty, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 10800 for a further rally towards 10840/10875-10935/10975 in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10780-10740 NF may fall towards 10680/10660-10630/10570 in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25925 for a further rally towards 26050/26150-26275/26550 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25875-25825, BNF may fall towards 25650/25400-25250/24950 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 now has to sustain over 2695-2705 for a further rally towards 2730/2750-2765/2785 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2685-2675, SPX-500 may fall towards 2660/2635-2610/2595 and 2580/2565 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Valuation metrics:

Nifty-50: 10718; Q3FY18 EPS: 403; Q3FY18 PE: 26.60; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360

Bank Nifty: 26090; Q3FY18 EPS: 807; Q3FY18 PE: 32.33; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220

SPX-500: 2672; TTM Q4-2017 EPS: 111; TTM PE: 24.07

Market Wrap: 04/05/2018

NSE-NF (May):10735 (-5; -0.05%)

NSE-BNF (May):26032 (+186; +0.72%)

SPX-500: 2672 (-0.71; -0.03%)

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