Technical & Macro Analysis Of Indian & Global Market----: Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/SPX-500): 14/05/2018

Monday, 14 May 2018

Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/SPX-500): 14/05/2018

Updated: 08:00

SGX-NF: 10820 (+4; -0.04%)

Expected BNF opening: 26430 (+0.05%)

SPX-500: 2738 (+8; +0.31%)

Note: Flat opening on positive global cues on hopes of US-China trade truce after Trump took initiative to solve China’s ZTE embargo in the US to save hundreds of “Chinese jobs” and get back ZTE in US business.

But mixed exit poll results and “disappointment” to some extent for the BJP/NAMO and neck & neck fight with INC (95 vs 90) in the Karnataka election may be an indication that there will be some “fight” in 2019 general election and thus Indian market mood might be on “risk-off” mood ahead of the actual result on Tuesday.

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:

10800/10740-10710/10660*-10590/10530

Resistance to NF:

10850/10875*-10935/10975-11055/11150

Support for BNF:

26275/26125-26000/25800-25600/25300

Resistance to BNF:

26650/26800-27150/27300-27500/27700

Support for SPX-500:

2715/2695*-2675/2655-2625/2610

Resistance to SPX-500:

2750/2775-2805/2820-2855/2880

Technical View (Positional-Nifty, Bank Nifty, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 10875 for a further rally towards 10935/10975-11055/11150 and further 11195-11225/11375 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 10850 NF may fall towards 10800/10740-10710/10660* and further 10590/10530 in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 26650 for a further rally towards 26800/27150-27300/27500 and further 27700-28000 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 26600-26450 BNF may fall towards 26275/26125-26000/25800-25600/25300 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 now has to sustain over 2750 for a further rally towards 2775/2805-2820/2855 and further 2880-2895 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2745, SPX-500 may fall towards 2715/2695*-2675/2655 and further 2625/2610 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Valuation metrics:

Nifty-50: 10805; Q3FY18 EPS: 403; Q3FY18 PE: 26.81; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360

Bank Nifty: 26413; Q3FY18 EPS: 807; Q3FY18 PE: 32.73; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220

SPX-500: 2728; TTM Q4-2017 EPS: 111; TTM PE: 24.58

GLOBAL MARKET STORIES:

FOLLOW ME: TWITTER.COM/ASISIIFL