Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/SPX-500): 04/05/2018

Updated: 08:25

SGX-NF: 10660 (-40; -0.37%)

Expected BNF opening: 25600 (-0.40%)

SPX-500: 2626 (-6; -0.22%)

Note Gap-down opening on subdued global/Asian cues amid concern of US-China trade negotiations outcome and a lower USD on Fed’s “symmetrical” view about US inflation. The market is concerned about US stagflation rather than a “Trumpflation” as Fed is hawkish on inflation, while dovish on economic growth. All focus is now on US NFP payroll data later in the day. Domestic market may now focus on earnings, politics-Karnataka election, macros-higher oil and NPA/NCLT resolution.

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:

10635*/10610-10570/10530-10490/10430

Resistance to NF:

10720/10740-10800*/10840-10875/10935

Support for BNF:

25500/25350*-25150/25000-24800/24700

Resistance to BNF:

25675/25775*-25850/25915-26050/26150

Support for SPX-500:

2620/2610-2580/2565-2550/2525

Resistance to SPX-500:

2645/2665-2685/2705-2730/2750

Technical View (Positional-Nifty, Bank Nifty, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 10740 for a further rally towards 10800/10840-10875/10935 in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10720-10700 NF may fall towards 10635/10610-10570/10530 in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25675 for a further rally towards 25775/25850-25915/26050 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25625, BNF may fall towards 25500/25350-25150/25000 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 now has to sustain over 2665 for a further rally towards 2685/2705-2730/2750 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2655-2645, SPX-500 may fall towards 2620/2610-2580/2565 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Valuation metrics:

Nifty-50: 10680; Q3FY18 EPS: 403; Q3FY18 PE: 26.50; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360

Bank Nifty: 25605; Q3FY18 EPS: 807; Q3FY18 PE: 31.73; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220

SPX-500: 2626; TTM Q4-2017 EPS: 111; TTM PE: 23.66

GLOBAL MARKET UPDATE:

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